Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 19 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set to open with mild gains on Monday after a strong rally, in a breather to the bulls. However, the momentum may continue as the session and week progresses on the back of positive global cues. However, all eyes will be set on economic data from the US and India later this week.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 18.80 points, or 0.07 per cent, higher at 25,769, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asia shares firmed on Monday tracking the Wall Street. Nikkei soared 1.55 per cent, while KOSPI gained 0.75 per cent. Shanghai also opened higher but Hang Seng was down half a per cent.

Looking ahead, global cues will continue to drive market direction. Despite improved sentiment, caution persists regarding potential tariff escalations, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "The US President announced on a social media platform the signing of a deal with China and indicated a potential deal with India, although details remain scant." he said.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit all-time highs on Friday as renewed AI enthusiasm and the prospect of a looser monetary policy powered a recovery in US stocks from months-long rout. S&P 500 rose 0.59 per cent to 6,178.80 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.59 per cent to 20,299.72 points. Dow Jones was up a per cent to 43,819.27.

The dollar has not fared so well as the dollar index dipped to 97.163 due to concerns about tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.27 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week.

In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which slipped to $3,266 an ounce. Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week. Brent dropped a further 55 cents to $67.22 a barrel, while US crude eased 68 cents to $64.84 per barrel.

The domestic strength in the benchmark indices continued to be driven by strong buying. Positive global cues, easing geopolitical tensions, and a dovish US Fed outlook supported sentiment, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. "RBI’s recent rate cut and robust institutional inflows added momentum and provided additional support," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,397.02 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) tuned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 588.93 crore on a net-net basis. Overseas investors have pumped 8,915 crore in Indian equities in the month of June so far.

FIIs were buyers in financials, capital goods and realty stocks and were sellers in FMCG, consumer durables and IT. The buying has imparted strength to largecaps helping the Nifty and Sensex to scale new highs for 2025, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. "FIIs continued selling in the bond market and this trend is likely to continue," he said.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

Nifty has formed a long bullish candle on the weekly charts, which is largely positive. It is maintaining an uptrend continuation pattern on daily and intraday charts and is currently trading comfortably above short-term averages, which is also positive, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"For trend-following traders, 25,500–25,300/83,300-82,700 would act as crucial retracement support zones. As long as the market remains above these levels, the uptrend is likely to continue on the higher side, with 25,850/84,400 serving as the immediate resistance level for the bulls. Further upside could potentially lift the market up to 26,000/84,800," he said.

The Nifty is trading in Wave 5 of an impulse pattern on the weekly chart, signaling continued bullish momentum. The index has given a breakout from its recent consolidation range, forming a strong bullish candle, said Choice Broking.

"According to Fibonacci extension levels, the projected targets for this fifth wave stand at 27,300 and 28,600. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 25,000 and 24,500, where any correction could be viewed as a buy-on-dips opportunity. The RSI stands at 64.58, trending upward, indicating continued strength in momentum," it said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Bank Nifty has formed a sizable bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling strength and continuation of the up move on the weekly charts. The index in the process rallied to a fresh all time high. The structure in the index remains firmly bullish as it is seen sustaining above the 20-DEMA since April—a key indicator of persistent upward momentum, said Bajaj Broking.

"The implied pattern target projects an upside potential towards 58,000-58,500 marks over the coming sessions. This projection is further supported by bullish price structure and momentum indicators. On the downside, the key support base has been recalibrated to the 56,000–55,500 region," it said.

Bank Nifty is trading in the fifth wave of an impulse pattern, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart, said Choice Broking. "The next potential upside targets lie at 58,700 and 60,000, while immediate support is placed near 56,700. Dips towards support levels can be seen as buying opportunities in this strong uptrend," it said.