Adani Green share price: Jefferies sees 35% upside, cites multiple triggers

Jefferies finds Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) attractively valued at 20 times one-year forward Ebitda, following a 22 per cent correction from its peak. The brokerage expects Adani Green's Ebitda to grow at a compounded annual rate of 30 per cent over FY26-FY30. Jefferies said its recent visit to Khavda gave it confidence in AGEL’s on-ground execution.

It also sees industry triggers of strong power demand and better utilisation driven by higher temperatures. These should largely offset potential higher interest costs from RBI rate hikes and ease investor concerns, Jefferies said as it suggested 'Buy' and a target of Rs 1,695 apiece, implying 35 per cent potential upside.

"While the recent RBI rate hike has raised some concerns around impact on earnings, multiple offsetting factors, as highlighted above, should help cushion the impact and limit the earnings drag relative to what the headline rate increase may imply. With the 22 per cent stock correction from its peak, broadly in line with the sector, it is now trading at a reasonable 20x 1-year forward EV/Ebitda," Jefferies said. 
 
Jefferies said El-Nino could continue in 2027, which means 2026 peak deficit can repeat in 2027. It sad coal stocks are at critical levels of less than seven days. State Electricity Boards (SEBs) are already discussing locking in 2027 power as shortages could reappear with rising temperatures.

"AGEL is swiftly ramping up its Battery Energy Storage Solutions (BESS) segment. It has an installed BESS capacity of 6.6 GWh with plans of 10 GWh+ end FY27E. This is likely to accelerate given the strong power demand. Also, our 6.5-6.8 GW FY28E-30E annual generation capacity addition could see upside," Jefferies said.

Besides, Jefferies said Khavda has solar irradiation of 2,060 KWh/m2 which implies solar utilisation potential of 33 per cent. The wind speed of 8 meters per second implies wind utilisation potential of 35 per cen.

"AGEL’s FY26 firm-level solar and wind average utilisation is 24 per cent and 27 per cent. Khavda will account for 65 per cent-plus of incremental capacity addition by FY30E and could meaningfully drive upside to our assumptions of 26.5 per cent utilisation in solar and to some extent in wind," Jefferies said.  It said every 200 basis points (bps) better solar utilisation adds 20 per cent to profits.

Lastly, AGEL’s net debt to Ebitda is seen falling to 7.1 time by FY30 from 8.9 times in FY26
on capacity assumption of 44 GW. Promoter group subscribed to 6.3 crore warrants in 2024 at Rs 1,480.75 per share and planned an equity investment of Rs 9350 crore in AGEL. Jefferies said 25 per cent was paid in 2024, and the balance was infused in Apr-July 2025.

"Largely AGEL’s installed capacity is tied up under long-term PPAs which provide steady cash flow visibility and lends confidence on B/S improving," it said.