Ambit, Motilal Oswal see over 25% upside in this renewable energy player

Analysts on Dalal Street maintained their bullish view on Saatvik Green Energy despite a weak Q1FY27 performance, citing the company’s strong order book and the ramp-up of its cell manufacturing capacity from the third quarter as key drivers of margin improvement.

Ambit Capital has set a target price of Rs 510 for Saatvik Green Energy, implying an upside of more than 25% from the current market price. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has also set a target price of Rs 508.

For the quarter ended June 2026, the company reported consolidated gross sales of Rs 511 crore, down 44% from Rs 915.73 crore in the year-ago period. Profit after tax declined 95% year on year to Rs 5.36 crore.

Management attributed the weak performance to geopolitical issues in the Middle East, inflationary pressures and uncertainty over the implementation of ALMM-II, which led to lower sales volumes.

Data from Ace Equity shows that Saatvik Green Energy has recorded strong revenue growth over the past five years, with gross sales rising from Rs 480 crore in FY22 to Rs 2,262.2 crore in FY26, an increase of more than four times.  Profitability, however, has been more volatile. PAT increased from Rs 6 crore in FY22 to Rs 62.3 crore in FY26.

“The weak performance was driven by lower sales volumes, as customers adopted a ‘wait-and-watch’ approach pending clarity on ALMM-II, with geopolitical and supply chain disruptions, commodity price volatility, elevated logistics costs and foreign exchange fluctuations further weighing on performance,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.

Despite the weak quarter, Saatvik Green Energy’s order book increased to 6.35 GW as of June 2026 from 5.89 GW in March 2026, providing strong revenue visibility for the coming quarters. The company also reduced its debt burden, with its debt-to-equity ratio declining to 0.99 times in Q1FY27 from 1.28 times in Q1FY26.

Motilal Oswal expects the company’s in-house cell manufacturing capacity to support a significant improvement in EBITDA margins. “Q2FY27 volumes are expected to remain strong. However, margin expansion could remain limited due to ongoing geopolitical issues and the recent increase in cell and polysilicon prices. Encapsulant capacity is targeted to be increased to 5GW, which should provide greater control over the supply chain,” the brokerage said.

Ambit Capital also expects Saatvik Green Energy’s revenue to continue growing at a healthy pace. The brokerage estimates that the company’s top line will grow 29.7% year on year in FY27, 47% in FY28 and 10% in FY29.

Ambit expects EBITDA to rise to Rs 1,667.60 crore by FY29 from Rs 546.50 crore in FY26. It estimates net profit at Rs 318.40 crore in FY27, Rs 839.30 crore in FY28 and Rs 862.70 crore in FY29, compared with Rs 361.30 crore in FY26.

The brokerages believe that a strong order book, higher volumes and the ramp-up of in-house cell manufacturing could help Saatvik Green Energy improve profitability over the medium term, despite near-term challenges.