Bajaj Housing share price: Up to 40% upside for Bajaj Finance arm? BHFL targets after 23% rally in 30 days

Shares of Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd, promoted by Bajaj Finance Ltd, fell 2 per cent on Tuesday, with the stock declining for the third time in the past four sessions, making investors wonder whether the scrip will give up its 23 per cent return delivered in the past 30 days. Analysts Bajaj Housing Finance's Q4 results were largely in line ad asset quality was robust, but the contraction in net interest margin (NIM) was higher expected and that competitive intensity still stayed elevated. After the recent rise, a couple of brokerage are neutral-to-positive on the stock's prospects, with ICICI Securities suggesting 'Buy' with an 40 per cent upside target, while MOFSL suggesting 'Neutral' with a double-digit  target price. 

Bajaj Finance is the promoter of Bajaj Housing Finance, holding 86.70 per cent stake in the housing finance company, as of March 31, 2026.

The HFC's management highlighted that the operating environment remains highly competitive, with strong participation from PSU banks and large private lenders, leading to persistent pricing pressure across segments. Banks continued to remain the pricing setter in mortgages, and BT-Outs continued to remain structurally high (10 per cent) despite a stable policy rate environment, it noted.

On Tuesday, the scrip fell 1.75 per cent to hit a low of Rs 89.39. The scrip hit a 52-week high of Rs 128.50 last year in May. 

MOFSL said it continued to believe in the management’s ability to drive profitability improvement, supported by a healthy AUM CAGR of 22 per cent over FY26-28E. It broadly sees steady NIM and benign credit costs. 

"We expect BHFL to deliver strong AUM growth, but rising competition from PSU banks and higher BTOUTs may push BHFL to cut its lending rates, which could exert pressure on NTI," MOFSL said while suggesting a target price  of Rs 100 on the stock.

ICICI Securities, which has a target price of Rs 125 on BHFL, said the HFC's Q4 performance was steady, with return on asset (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) at 2.2 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively—aligning with both management guidance and eight-quarter average. 

"While intensified competition in the prime housing segment continued to pressure NIM, resulting in a flat sequential PAT, management remains optimistic about maintaining a 2.0–2.2 per cent RoA for FY27. Improved operational efficiencies and moderated credit costs are likely to offset near-term spread compression and support RoA," ICICI Securities said. 

This brokerage said BHFL appears well positioned to capture broader market share, targeting a 5 per cent share of home loan originations, up from the current 2.5–2.7 per cent.