Bharti Airtel Q1 results preview: ARPU, subscriber additions and other key expectations

Bharti Airtel Ltd shares were trading marginally lower in Monday's trade ahead of its June quarter results. Analysts largely expect the telecom major to report 36-45 per cent plus growth in year-on-year (YoY) net profit for the first quarter on 14-15 per cent growth in net sales. The Sunil Bharti Mittal-led company is expected to add 50-60 lakh subscribers for the quarter sequentially and could report a slight improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), analysts said.

Key monitorables for the New Delhi-based company would include business vertical performance, ARPU trends, and customer additions and 5G rollout, they said. The Bharti Airtel stock was trading 1.08 per cent lower at Rs 1,949.85 apiece on BSE.

Centrum Broking said Bharti Airtel may add 50 lakh subscribers sequentially to 37.80 crore, with its ARPU likely growing 1.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 261 per month -- an industry leading, led by ongoing migration of subscribers from 2G-to-4G and higher number of days in the quarter. It is expected to report 3.2 per cent sequential revenue growth, Centrum said adding that Ebitda margin expected to improve by 36 bps QoQ to 57.2 per cent.

On YoY basis, net profit for the quarter is seen rising 45.2 per cent  to Rs 8,638.60 crore on 15.6 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 57,174 crore.

Nuvama sees profit rising 42.7 per cent YoY to Rs 8,488 crore on 15 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 57,468 crore. This brokerage is building in 2.1 per cent QoQ growth in revenue with 1.8 per cent QoQ growth for the India business and 5.2 per cent QoQ increase in rupee terms for the Africa business.

"India mobile services business is likely to grow 1.9 per cent QoQ. Consolidated Ebitda margin to decrease 80bp QoQ," it said.

Elara sees net profit for Bharti Airtel growing 36.4 per cent YoY to Rs 7,889 crore on 14.4 per cent rise in sales at Rs 56,582 crore. This brokerage sees Bharti's ARPU at Rs 258 against Rs 257 in the March quarter and Rs 250 in the year-ago quarter.

Axis Securities expects Airtel's revenue to grow 2.8 per cent QoQ, led by growth in subscriber additions and the Africa business. EBIT margin is likely to fall 69 basis points QoQ on account of higher operating costs, mainly towards data centre investment and network expansion, it said. This brokerage sees profit for the quarter at Rs 9,389 crore and sales at Rs 56,934 crore. Ebit margin is seen at 31.5 per cent.