Buy Adani Green Energy stock, says Emkay as it sees 33% upside potential

Emkay Global on Monday maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Adani Green Energy Ltd following the recent development, where the Adani group firm announced securing of a bid to supply 5 GW solar power under the competitive bidding process. The domestic brokerage called the flat rate of Rs 2.70 per kWh announced for the MSEDCL bid attractive and noted that Adani Green Energy’s secured PPA capacity has jumped to nearly 26 GW now.

Adani Green Energy has an existing PPA capacity of 20.8 GW, of which 10.7 GW is operational and 10.1 GW is for projects under construction. With this award, same goes up to 25.8 GW, which is 50 per cent of 50 GW planned by the company by FY29-30, Emkay Global said.

“We view Rs2.7/kWh flat rate for the PPA term of 25 years positively and the same is in sync with Rs 4.5 crore/MW of solar module cost, which AGEL is guiding as part of project capex. Khavda, with 30 GW, would enjoy significant economies of scale, the domestic brokerage said.

Adani Power placed the bid on behalf of the Adani group and Adani Green Energy would fulfill the solar part, as per the tender terms. The tender is one of the largest in India.

“On the back of discoms preferring stable power supply even during non-solar hours, hybrid bidding besides the likes of FDRE, RE+BESS/pump hydro etc should gain more traction, and AGEL along with APL stands to gain from these dynamics as seen in this bid,” he said.

Adani Green has recently made a 50-50 JV agreement with Total involving 1.15 GW of operational and under construction assets – both PPAs and merchant (SPV named ARE64L) – wherein the latter would invest $444 million.

Emkay Global believes the deal values the assets at more than Rs 6 crore per MW and hence seems attractive.

“AGEL has also redeemed holdco notes worth $750 million recently. The company’s CFO, Phuntsok Wangyal, has resigned and Saurabh Shah (currently Deputy CFO of Adani Enterprises) has been appointed as the new CFO. We maintain BUY and target price of Rs 2,550 per share; however, we slightly raise our FY25/26/27 EPS estimates by 4 per cent/2 per cent/1 per cent due to a slight 1 per cent revenue adjustment,” it said.

Adani Green Energy shares climbed over 7 per cent to hit a high of Rs 1,920. Emkay Global’s target price suggests a 33 per cent potential upside over the prevailing stock price.