JM Financial increased its FY26–28E revenue estimates by 1–6 per cent based on revisions to its SSSG and store addition estimates. (Pic: DMart logo, Damani from Ashoka University)
JM Financial increased its FY26–28E revenue estimates by 1–6 per cent based on revisions to its SSSG and store addition estimates. (Pic: DMart logo, Damani from Ashoka University)The Radhakishan Damani-led Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMart) saw its shares rising over 3 per cent in Monday's trade, as a couple of brokerages upped their target prices on the stock, following the retailer's March quarter business update.
The stock rose 3.49 per cent to hit a high of Rs 4,512.60 on BSE. It though trimmed gains and was up 0.16 per cent at Rs 4,367.15 by 9.55 am. Damani & his family held 74.65 per cent stake in DMart as of December 31, 2025. The stake was worth Rs 2,12,209 crore at the prevailing price.
Analysts noted DMart's revenue growth trajectory improved to 19 per cent YoY in the March quarter compared with 15 per cent YoY in the first nine months of FY26, driven by acceleration in store additions and likely recovery in same store sales growth.
While competitive intensity from Quick Commerce (QC) remains intense in the metros and tier 1 markets, they maintained that the acceleration in store additions, especially given notable whitespaces in North and East India, remains the key trigger for DMart to revert to a 20 per cent YoY revenue growth trajectory, they said.
"Acceleration in store additions continues to remain the key growth trigger for DMart. We now raise our FY27-28 store additions to 85-90 stores. While the competitive intensity from QC could remain elevated in the near-to-medium term, we believe DMart’s value-focused model and superior store economics would ensure its competitiveness and customer relevance over the long run, especially in tier 2+ towns, where the potential for growth remains significant," MOFSL said.
The brokerage upped its target price on DMart to Rs 5,000 from Rs 4,600.
Antique maintained its 'HOLD' rating on DMart but revised its target price to Rs 4,185 from Rs 4,161, based on 40 times FY28 EV/Ebitda. It cited near term challenges such as subdued performance in margin general merchandise & apparel, weak recovery in mature stores and increase competition intensity from online grocery format mainly in metros and Tier1 cities, which may keep near term DMart's performance under check.
JM Financial increased its FY26–28E revenue estimates by 1–6 per cent based on revisions to its SSSG and store addition estimates. However, its EPS estimates increased only 0–4 per cent owing to higher interest/depreciation as DMart’s operating cash flow and cash balance, it said, should not be sufficient to fund the growth.
"Even so, improved visibility on store openings and acceleration in SSSG warrant an uptick in target P/E to 65x (from 60x). This coupled with a valuation rollover to Mar’28E lifts our TP to Rs 4,500 (from Rs 3,950). The upside potential remains capped vis-à-vis CMP; maintain REDUCE," it said.
DMart added 46 stores in its existing cities while entering 39 new cities during FY26, including entry into five new states (namely UP, Haryana, Odisha, Uttarakhand, and Goa) in FY26.