GCPL, CESC, Birlasoft, Shree Cement, Kansai Nerolac, Shoppers Stop: Target prices

Antique Stock Broking on Thursday gave recommendations on a host of stocks including Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), Shree Cement Ltd, Birlasoft Ltd, Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd, CESC and Shoppers Stop, among others. The broking firm said Birlasoft's margin outlook remained intact even as March quarter revenue came in weak. It sees early signs of recovery in demand for Shoppers Stop and upgraded Kansai Nerolac to 'Buy. For CESC, Q4 was a strong finish to the year, Antique said while upping its target price on the stock. An industry leading profitability is seen driving re-rating on Shree Cement. GCPL was retained as 'Buy' but its target has been lowered. 

GCPL | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 1,314 

Godrej Consumer Products’ (GCPL) delivered year-on-year (YoY) consolidated sales and volume growth of 11 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. Antique said household insecticides, air fresheners, and fabric care saw strong momentum with market share gains. Personal care was under incremental pressure due to seasonality impacting offtakes of hair colour, it said.

The brokearge said GCPL's raw material basket has seen an inflation of 7-9 per cent and therefore margin pressure is expected in the near term.

"GCPL is currently trading at 45 times FY27 estimates. We marginally tweak our estimates and maintain BUY rating on the stock with the revised target of Rs 1,314 (previously Rs 1,345) based on 46x P/E (in-line with 10-yr average) on FY28 estimates," Antique said.

Shree Cement | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 28,800 

Antique said Shree Cement's Q4 consolidated Ebitda fell 3 per cent YoY, which was largely in-line with its estimates and ahead of consensus. It said the company sees cost elevated pressures given West-Asia conflicts with overall inflation of Rs 200 per ton expected in Q1, which is likely to be mitigated via price hikes. 

"The company expects to balance both volume and value in FY27 and targets to grow volume ahead of industry. We marginally tweak our FY27-28E Ebitda estimates by 0-2 per cent. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target of Rs 28,800," it said.

With investors concerns on volume growth likely getting addressed and company sustaining industry leading profitability, Antique said Shree Cement's valuation discount against larger peers may narrow going ahead.

CESC | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 212

Antique said CESC reported Q4 consolidated PAT growth of 19 per cent YoY, marking a strong finish to the year. It said FY26 consolidated PAT was up 13 per cent YoY, driven by all-time-low T&D losses at Kolkata (6.11 per cent), robust performance at key subsidiaries and continued narrowing of losses at Malegaon. 

"Total generation was steady while distribution volumes grew across circles. Renewable momentum accelerated with Purvah Green winning new projects and the first 300 MW solar project under commissioning. We maintain a BUY rating and roll forward our target to Rs 212," Antique said.
It sees three key catalysts for the stock: sustained efficiency gains and regulated-equity accretion; renewable capacity addition from FY27 onwards, and potential upside from discom privatisation opportunities.

Kansai Nerolac Paints | Rating: Buy | Target Rs 302

Antique said Kansai Nerolac Paints' Q4 performance was an overall beat on estimates. This was on the backdrop of sustained recovery (last 5 months) in the decorative segment, it said. Given the improving demand outlook, easing competition, strong execution, and stable margin, it upgraded the stock to Buy. 

"We increase our FY27/28 estimates by 23 per cent/26 per cent with a target price of Rs 302 (previously Rs 191), based on a P/E multiple of 30 times vs 24 times earlier on FY28 estimates (17 per cent discount to 5-year average)," it said.

Birlasoft | Rating: Hold | Target: Rs 355

Antique said Birlasoft’s 4Q revenue declined 3.7 per cent QoQ in constant currency (CC) terms, below its expectation of a degrowt of 0.6 per cent. The degrowth was largely led by client-specific issues in the Life Sciences segment, along with the company’s conscious decision to let go of certain low-margin business. 

"EBIT margin, however, came in above expectations at 17 per cent, aided by one-time benefits from the reversal of performance-linked compensation provisions, lower leave encashment and equity-linked payouts, along with currency tailwinds," it said.

The brokerage has cut its organic revenue growth assumptions while keeping margin estimates largely intact for Birlasoft.

Shoppers Stop | Rating: Buy | Target Rs 436

Shoppers Stop’s Q4 results were ahead of Antique's estimates. Revenue grew 9.3 per cent YoY, driven by premiumisation and a low base. Shoppers Stop, Antique said, witnessed early signs of demand recovery in Q4. Premium portfolio contribution continues to increase while focus on private brands drives higher throughput. Ebitda margin contraction was lower than GM contraction owing to lower other expenses, it said.

"We increase our estimates by 3 per cent in FY28 and value SHOP at 18 times pre-Ind AS EV/Ebitda (28 per cent discount to 5 yr average) on FY28 estimates. In view of favorable valuations, we maintain Buy  recommendation with a revised target of Rs 436 (previously Rs 424)," the brokerage said.