Gold prices: Weak dollar, central bank buying may trigger next big move, says Vandana Bharti

Gold’s next big move may depend less on interest rates and more on the weakening US dollar, according to commodity expert Vandana Bharti, who argued that currency depreciation and central bank buying are reshaping the bullion trade. Her comments come at a time when investors are reassessing whether higher global rates can still cool demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

The dollar effect on bullion

Bharti said the recent strength in gold should not be viewed purely as a reflection of rising intrinsic value. “It is not all about that gold is increasing, it is also about that the dollar is depreciating,” she said, arguing that the softer greenback has added momentum to bullion prices.

That distinction matters for investors trying to judge whether gold is overheated. In her view, the rally cannot be dismissed simply as an overbought move because currency weakness has become a structural support for precious metals.

Why rate hikes may not derail gold

The broader market narrative has been that higher interest rates should strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. But Bharti contended that this relationship is no longer working cleanly, noting that even after rate-hike signals, “we haven’t seen any kind of upside move in dollar index.”

That argument builds on the wider discussion around global monetary tightening, where central banks from the US Federal Reserve to the Bank of Japan have moved toward higher rates. Yet gold, instead of cracking sharply, has remained resilient, suggesting that macro stress and reserve diversification are offsetting the traditional rate headwind.

Central banks change the equation

A key pillar of Bharti’s thesis is the changing behaviour of sovereign reserve managers. She said trade tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war and broader geopolitical fractures have created an environment “against dollar and US treasuries,” leading to lower appetite for US debt and stronger interest in gold.

“Gold is the most wanted thing for central banks,” she said. That is a significant signal for markets because official-sector buying tends to be less price-sensitive than retail or ETF flows, giving bullion a firmer long-term floor.

What investors should watch next

Bharti expects the dollar to weaken further toward 95-96, a scenario she believes would keep gold attractive even in a high-rate environment. If that plays out, the bullion market could remain supported not just by festive demand and safe-haven buying, but by a deeper global shift in reserve preferences.