Hindalco Industries, APL Apollo Tubes shares: Axis Direct's top metal bets; check target prices, outlook

Axis Direct has picked APL Apollo Tubes Ltd and Hindalco Industries Ltd as its top stock ideas from the metals and mining space, maintaining a 'Buy' rating on both counters.

On APL Apollo Tubes, the brokerage said, "Despite late-quarter disruptions (war impact, energy shortages, destocking), the company delivered ~Rs 5,500+/t EBITDA, driven by strong brand premium and better product mix amidst supply tightness in steel tubes. Management remains confident of sustaining Rs 5,000-5,500/t EBITDA, even in volatile conditions."

The brokerage noted that the company is prioritising profitability amid an uncertain demand environment.

"Given demand uncertainty and macro headwinds, management highlighted a clear pivot. The focus will be on protecting margins and absolute EBITDA rather than volumes. Volume growth will be volatile and could be below guidance in the near term as Apr-May'26 trends indicate weak volumes but strong profitability," it added.

Axis also highlighted the company's strong cash generation and balance sheet position.

"FY26 Operating Cash Flow stood robust at ~Rs 2,000 crore (up 65 per cent YoY), Free Cash Flow at ~Rs 1,336 crore (from Rs 374 crore in FY25), Net Cash at ~Rs 1,500 crore+ (jump from Rs 304 crore in FY25). A significant ~Rs 1,000 crore cash build-up in Q4 alone was driven by Inventory reduction (30-40k tonnes) and working capital efficiency. This strong balance sheet enables self-funded capex, higher dividends, and potential buybacks," Axis also said.

"The company plans to raise its total capacity to 10 MT by FY30 from the current 5 MT. (FY27: 6.0-6.5 MT, FY28: 8 MT)," it further stated.

Axis Direct has assigned a target price of Rs 2,250 to APL Apollo Tubes, implying an upside potential of 27.17 per cent from Tuesday's closing level of Rs 1,769.35.

On Hindalco Industries, the brokerage pointed to a series of ongoing and planned expansion projects.

"Aditya alumina refinery (850 ktpa), 180 ktpa phase I Aluminium smelter at Aditya, and the copper recycling (50 ktpa) plant are on track for FY28 commissioning. The company announced a 193 ktpa Phase II expansion at Aditya Aluminium (to be operational by FY29)," it stated.

"The company's 300 ktpa brownfield copper smelter expansion is expected to be commissioned by FY29 in Gujarat, and management envisages that the Tc/Rcs will improve from the current low levels in the next few years as it embarks on the smelter capex. Copper smelting capacity will rise to 721kt from 421kt post this 300kt expansion. In line with the smelting capacity, the CCR expansion of 300 KT is also under execution over and above the existing 540 ktpa rods capacity. This will lead to a $100/t addition to EBITDA/t over the base of FY24," Axis further said.

The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 1,220 for Hindalco Industries, indicating an upside potential of 6.41 per cent from Tuesday's closing price of Rs 1,146.50.