Manappuram Finance, HZL, NFIL, Meesho: Jefferies adds 4 stocks to portfolio; here's why

Gold monetisation via banks and NBFC loans has increased, said Jefferies as it noted that Indians hold an estimated $4 trillion in gold, about 4 times the money held in stocks. If the recent surge in gold prices extends on the back of dollar concerns, wealth and spending would be likely visible, it said,

"Monetisation of gold savings via Gold backed loans has gained salience and could be driving 80 bps additional GDP growth / spends for a 10 per cent gold price increase, partially offset by higher CAD. We add Manappuram, HZL, NFIL, Meesho to our model portfolio," the foreign brokerage said on Monday.

Jefferies said it has added Manappuram as its preferred play on the accelerating monetisation of household gold through formal lending channels, funded by modest trims across select lenders. It also replaced Jindal Stainless with Hindustan Zinc to gain exposure to the silver theme and Meesho as a play on mass discretionary consumption.

"We add Navin Fluorine where we see growth levers across CDMO, cooling products, specialty chemical & advanced materials driving 23 per cent EPS CAGR during FY26-29E, while removing Ambuja Cements. Other Gold beneficiaries on potential price surge include Jewellers (Titan, Kalyan), MCX, lenders (IIFL Finance, Muthoot)," it said.
 
Jefferies said rising domestic flows in equities over the last decade has been remarkable but gold has not fallen off the radar. During FY26, while $96 billion went into equities including by mutual funds and Pension funds, $79 billion was spent on gold imports. Gold holdings are two times that of bank deposits and 4 times stocks; and account for 25 per cent of total household wealth.

Traditionally a dormant asset, gold is increasingly being monetised through gold-backed loans amid the current price upcycle, Jefferies said.

"Economic impact of gold price/loan surge is significant. FY26 increase in gold loan AUM corresponds to ~130bps of GDP. Unlike equities, Gold ownership is widespread across rural and lower-income households. As a result, the Gold wealth effect could offer a buffer amid deficient monsoons and provide tailwind to bottom-of-pyramid consumption," the foreign brokerage said.

Gold loans as percentage of gold holdings are down 80 bps from March 2024 levels, unable to match the fast jump in Gold prices. A reversion over next two years can drive 8-10 percentage points or $15-20 billion per annum rise in gold loans.

Jeffries' macro strategist Chris Wood said that fiscal issues in America and Japan, and the constraints they impose on monetary policy are bullish for gold.

At estimated $197 billion as of March 2026, gold loans have grown 73 per cent in dollar terms over the past two years and now account for 7 per cent of total bank and NBFC credit. Gold monetisation via bank/NBFC loans has increased from less than 4 per cent pre-2020 to 5.1 per cent in March 2026.

Assuming 65 per cent LTV, and additional loans via the unorganized channels, Jefferies estimated that only 15 per cent of gold holdings are currently monetised.