Nifty set for worst returns in 15 years, analysts weigh in

The 50-stock Nifty is set to clock its worst returns in 15 years as rising bond yields, West Asia war and brent crude prices roil investor sentiment. The benchmark stock market index is down 13% in 2026, its worst annual performance since 2011. The index slumped 25% in 2011 after FIIs pulled out Rs 2,500 crore from Indian market.

Domestic bottlenecks such as high inflation, rising interest rates and a falling rupee dented investor sentiment 15 years ago. Global factors such as the European crisis and a slow recovery in the US also contributed to the market crash that year.

Since 2011, the index has logged negative annual returns only once till date. It slipped 4% in 2015.

In the current session, Nifty crashed 360 pts to 22,780. The Indian market logged its seventh straight  negative weekly closing last week-its worst losing streak since Covid 20.

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With bears tightening grip on the Dalal Street, here's a look at what analysts said on the outlook of the Indian market.

Siddhartha Khemka, senior Group Vice President - Head of Research (Retail), Motilal Oswal Financial Services told BTTV that Nifty could recover to 25,000-26,000 by FY27-end. He expects the market to consolidate and potentially recover towards the 23,000–24,000 zone by year-end.

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking said, "The short-term structure has turned negative after Nifty broke below the 23,000 mark on increasing volume and closed below the lower-high neckline, indicating a major breakdown on the chart. This also marks the first instance of seven consecutive weekly negative closes in the last 10 years. Based on the current technical setup, the index remains vulnerable to further selling in the coming sessions. Immediate support is seen at 22,700–22,600, while resistance is placed at 22,900–23,100."

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said, "Bears continued to strengthen as the selling pressure intensified, dragging Nifty decisively below the 23,000 mark. The index extended its decline below the recent swing low, reinforcing the prevailing bearish structure. The RSI appears to be re-entering the oversold zone, indicating a rise in downside momentum. Sentiment remains extremely weak, with rising US bond yields and crude oil prices adding to the negative bias. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 22,650–22,700, below which further correction could extend in the short term. On the higher end, 23,000 is likely to act as a strong resistance and may prove difficult to reclaim."