Paytm shares at Rs 2,074? Why Ventura sees 84% upside in 24 months

Ventura Securities has reiterated a bullish stance on One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm), projecting an 84 per cent upside in the stock over the next two years. The brokerage has set a DCF-based target price of Rs 2,074, against the prevailing market price of Rs 1,127, as it expects the fintech major to sustain profitability, accelerate revenue growth and strengthen its merchant ecosystem.

Since Ventura’s initiation of coverage in August 2024, Paytm has sharpened its focus on profitability through operational and strategic shifts. The company’s merchant base rose from 4.07 crore in Q1FY25 to 4.5 crore in Q1FY26, while its payment GMV increased from Rs 4.21 lakh crore to Rs 5.34 lakh crore. Device penetration within the merchant base climbed to 1.3 crore from 1.09 crore, reinforcing a recurring revenue stream.

Ventura said Paytm has also relaunched Paytm Postpaid, in partnership with Suryoday Small Finance Bank and powered by NPCI, aiming to capture high-margin financial services opportunities. Its UPI market share improved to 7.3 per cent in Q1FY26 from 7 per cent a year ago, while UPI person-to-merchant (P2M) share rose to 20.9 per cent from 20.4 per cent.

Looking ahead, Ventura expects Paytm’s monthly transacting users and subscription-paying device merchants to rise from 7.4 crore and 1.3 crore in Q1FY26 to 9.5 crore and 2.2 crore, respectively, by FY28E. Payment GMV is projected to nearly double from Rs 18.7 lakh crore in FY25 to Rs 33.9 lakh crore in FY28E.

Ventura expects Paytm’s revenue and contribution profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.3 per cent and 30.8 per cent, respectively, over FY25–28. Contribution margins are expected to improve to 57.8 per cent from 53.2 per cent. Paytm turned post-ESOP Ebitda positive in Q1FY26, and Ventura forecasts post-ESOP Ebitda of Rs 2,164 crore and net profit of Rs 2,138 crore by FY28E, marking a sharp turnaround from FY25 losses.

“At the current market price, Paytm trades at 33.6x FY28 P/E. Our target implies 61.8x FY28 P/E and an 84 per cent upside,” Ventura said, highlighting AI-driven operating leverage, disciplined cost structures, and expanding financial services as growth catalysts.