RIL Q4 results 2025 today: Most-valued stock falls ahead of earnings; what analysts say

Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most-valued stock in terms of market capitalisation, fell nearly 1 per cent in Friday's trade, ahead of the oil-to-telecom major's March quarter results. The Mukesh Ambani-led company is expected to report 8-10 per cent drop in net profit for the quarter on a 5-6 per cent drop in sales.  

Nuvama Institutional Equities sees RIL's reported profit after tax at Rs 17,435.60 crore, down 8 per cent YoY over Rs 18,951 crore in the year-ago quarter. Sales are seen falling 4.8 per cent YoY to Rs 2,25,242 crore in Q4 from Rs 2,36,533 crore in the same quarter last year. 

Nuvama anticipated a 2 per cent YoY increase in RIL consolidated Ebitda, down 2 per cent QoQ, as weakness in O2C, O&G Ebitda is likely to be offset by strength in Digital, Retail businesses. 

RIL shares hit a low of Rs 1,288 but recovered later. At 12.15 pm, RIL was trading at Rs 1,292.05 on BSE, down 0.74 per cent. 

"We expect O2C Ebitda to fall 14 per cent YoY (flat QoQ) on weak product cracks and petchem spreads. We expect RIL O&G's Ebitda to fall 9 per cent YoY on decrease in production from KG-D6 block. Retail Ebitda is expected to report healthy growth of 11 per cent YoY and on higher area, better margins and realisations but fall 9 per cent QoQ on festive season tailing off and a shorter quarter," Nuvama said.

JIO's Ebitda, meanwhile, is seen rising 16 per cent YoY on higher ARPU (up 13 per cent YoY) post tariff hike and 1 per cent YoY rise in subscribers. 

Emkay Global said RIL’s consolidated Ebitda will be flat  at Rs 43,700 crore, mainly supported by O2C amid seasonally muted Retail. It sees O2C business Ebitda up 4 per cent at Rs 15,000 crore on better physical market premiums and marketing margins. 

"We expect net subscriber adds of 25 lakh for Jio with 1 per cent higher ARPU at Rs 205. Retail Ebitda should be down 6 per cent QoQ to Rs 6,400 crore (up 9 per cent YoY), whereas upstream Ebitda should decline 8 per cent QoQ to Rs 5,100 crore. We estimate consolidated APAT (after MI) to also decrease, by 6 per cent YoY and 4 per cent QoQ to Rs 17,900 crore, due to higher depreciation and interest," the domestic broking firm said.
 
Kotak sees consolidated Ebitda to rise a modest 3.5 per cent YoY, mainly driven by further benefit from the telecom tariff hike and recovery in retail. 

"We expect consolidated O2C Ebitda to decline 11 per cent YoY. With the further benefit of the tariff hike, we expect R-Jio’s Ebitda to rise 3.3 per cent QoQ (17.5 per cent YoY). We assume a blended ARPU of Rs 206. We expect further recovery for retail. We forecast retail Ebitda may grow 10 per cent YoY,
Kotak said.

For RIL, BNP Paribas raised its target multiple for Jio, in-line with Airtel’s, as it lowered the multiples slightly for retail and O2C in line with the decline in peer multiples. "For Indus Towers, we see the recent conversion of debt into equity in Vodafone Idea by the government as a significant positive as it pushes out the debt risk for VIL by a few years," BNP Paribas said in a recent note.