RIL share jumps 3%, adds Rs 44K cr to investor wealth; fresh Reliance targets, rerating triggers 

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) climbed over 3 per cent in Monday's trade on better-than-expected Q4 results, adding nearly Rs 44,000 crore to investor wealth. Stock analysts said while the RIL Q4 Ebitda was in-line with projections, net profit beat the Street estimate by 5 per cent due to lower effective tax rate (ETR) and higher other income.

Strong profits from the consumer businesses offset the weakness in oil-to-chemical (O2C) and upstream. Besides, a strong footfall growth and increased traction in online sales led to a strong 14.4 per cent YoY jump in Retail Ebitda, analysts noted, as they retained 'Buy' ratings on RIL stock post Q4 results.  

On Monday, the stock climbed 3.3 per cent to hit a high of Rs 1,343 on BSE, taking its market capitalisation to Rs 18,02,985 crore, up Rs 43,709.56 crore over Friday's 17,59,276 crore.

"We introduce FY27 estimates and forecast revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR of 7 per cent/10 per cent/8 per cent during FY25-FY27E. We roll-over our valuation to FY27E and revise our target to Rs 1,541 from earlier Rs 1,476. We maintain 'Buy' on the stock. We believe further re-rating is imminent," said Systematix Institutional Equities.

MOFSL said RJio is likely be the biggest growth driver with 21 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25-27, driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise business. 

"We expect growth recovery in retail after the recent rationalization of unprofitable stores and B2B, driven by footprint/category additions and its foray into quick commerce," it said while suggesting a target price of Rs 1,515 on the stock. 

Nuvama said RIL started its first line of HJT module manufacturing facility of 1GW, which can be scaled up fast in phases to fully integrated 10GW by early-2026. The backward integration includes polysilicon. 

"We feel RIL may initially sell modules in the lucrative domestic market; internal consumption for solar power at scale targeted by FY27E. Given Waaree’s and Premier Energies’ capacity and profits, we reckon RIL’s DCR modules could generate Ebitda of Rs 6,000 crore on 10GW facility conservatively (4 per cent of FY25 Ebitda). RIL plans to set up 30GWh battery facility; container manufacturing to start soon. RIL targets 55 CBG plants," it noted. 

The brokerage added that the green hydrogen & electrolyser manufacturing are on track and it retain ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,708.