Sensex, Nifty outlook for Monday, May 11: What to expect from stock market? Key levels, strategy & more

Sensex, Nifty: Domestic equity markets managed to wrap up in the green for the second consecutive week, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty edging up 0.53% and 0.76%, respectively. However, the trading week ended on a bitter note on Friday. The 30-share Sensex closed at 77,328.19, while the 50-pack Nifty settled at 24,176.15.. Both benchmarks slipped about 0.6% in the final session to end in the red.

Gift Nifty
But looking ahead, early indicators suggest a mildly optimistic start for stock market on Monday, May 11. Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were trading 40 points, or 0.17%, higher at 24,280, indicating an opening with a positive bias.

Market view & global cues
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that the weakness late in the week was fueled by a fresh spike in crude oil prices. Brent crude briefly surged past the $100 mark following renewed military exchanges between the US and Iran, which quickly dampened hopes of a near-term peace agreement.

 Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that early optimism regarding de-escalation faded fast, keeping global risk appetite subdued. “Elevated oil prices continue to remain a key overhang for the domestic economy, intensifying concerns around imported inflation, pressure on the rupee and the potential impact on corporate margins,” he said.

Meanwhile, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Ltd, observed that the market ultimately absorbed the late-week profit-booking. He attributed the underlying resilience to favourable state election outcomes and fourth-quarter corporate earnings that surpassed cautious expectations.

“Midcap and smallcap indices outperformed, while sectors such as autos, defence, realty, and pharma witnessed strong buying interest,” Nair said.

Key levels to watch
Nifty: The 50-pack index remains stuck in a consolidation zone of 24,000–24,400. Ponmudi identified the 24,300–24,500 band as a resistance and strong supply zone. He said if the index sustains a breakout above this range, momentum could shift toward the 24,600–24,800 levels.

“On the downside, the 24,100–24,000 region remains a crucial support area, with a break below this zone potentially opening the path toward 23,800 levels,” Ponmudi said.

Sensex: Ponmudi placed immediate resistance at 77,600–78,000, while pegging support at 76,700–76,300. “A clear breakout on either side will be required for the next directional move,” he said.

Strategy
Mishra advised that investors should "maintain a stock-specific approach, preferring pharma, energy, auto, and select metal counters, while remaining selective across other sectors."

Nair also noted that investors should stay nimble and focus on fundamentals. "A stock-specific approach focused on earnings quality remains preferable until greater geopolitical clarity emerges," he said. Nair also noted that selective opportunities continue to exist in the mid and small-cap space, where valuations still look reasonable when paired with domestic growth drivers like infrastructure spending and a recovery in consumption.