Nifty outlook for Monday: Will stock market recovery sustain? Strategy, levels

Sensex rebounded nearly 1,800 points from day's low, while Nifty topped the 22,700 level after testing sub-22,200 levels, surprising many. The strong rebound, despite an 8 per cent surge in crude oil prices and the US President Donald Trump failing to offer clear communication over the West Asia crisis, made investors wondered whether the bulls have gained upper hand after the recent rise. 

Sensex ended the day at 73,319.55, up 185.23 points or 0.25 per cent. Nifty settled at 22,713.10, up 33.70 points or 0.15 per cent. The Nifty rebound was seen after the index hit a low of 22,182.55 level. The index respected a closing low of 22,161.60 hit last year in April.   

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services said the market sentiment still remains fragile and depends on the developments in the US–Iran conflict, with crude oil prices and foreign fund flows expected to remain key drivers of market direction in the near term.

The market wil be shut tomorrow on account of Good Friday. It will resume trading on Monday. 

Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities said: "US Dow Jones futures and European markets are trading in the red. At home, key events to monitor next week include India’s RBI interest rate decision, US FOMC minutes on April, US Q4 GDP growth on April 9 and the US March CPI and Core CPI data on 10 April 2026."

Nifty outlook
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said Nifty saw a highly volatile session after opening with a gap down. On the lower end, the index found support around 22,200, leading to a sharp recovery. 

"On the hourly chart, a positive divergence is visible on the RSI, suggesting improving momentum in the near term. Besides, the index has moved above the 21 EMA on the hourly chart, indicating a rise in optimism. In the near term, the index may move towards 23,300. On the downside, support is placed at 22,500, below which the index may slip into a consolidation phase."

Analysts noted momentum indicators are showing early signs of stabilisation, with RSI (14) around 38 gradually, improving within the neutral range, while CCI (20) near -103 is recovering from oversold levels, indicating easing selling pressure. 

However, a decisive Nifty move above 23,000 is essential to signal a meaningful shift in the prevailing bearish structure, said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.

Ajit Mishra  of Religare Broking said Nifty continued to exhibit high volatility with sharp intraday swings, indicating indecisiveness at current levels. We expect the prevailing volatility to persist in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed in the 23,000–23,200 zone, with a key hurdle around 23,500, while support is seen at 22,300–22,000 levels. Traders should remain cautious and adopt a hedged approach until clearer signs of stability emerge."

What's ahead? 

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said the week ahead is loaded with high-impact triggers across global and domestic fronts. Domestically, the RBI MPC meeting commands centre stage, he said.

"While a rate pause is near-certain consensus, the central bank walks a tightrope between crude-driven inflation risks and a four-year low Manufacturing PMI signalling a softening growth impulse. The Governor's commentary on the rate cycle trajectory and FY27 projections will be closely monitored," he said. 

Globally, the US March CPI print carries outsized weight, as a hotter-than-expected reading could bury residual Fed rate-cut hopes, strengthen the dollar and tightening financial conditions for emerging markets, including India. 

"Weekly jobless claims will simultaneously serve as a temperature check on the resilience of the US labour market. Overarching all of this is the Middle East conflict—Indian markets return after a three-day gap and remain acutely vulnerable to weekend war developments, with crude trajectory and any credible ceasefire signal being the decisive variable that could either trigger a sharp relief rally or extend the current sell-on-rise mode," Nair said.