Stock market, US-Iran deal, Trump: Sensex, Nifty set for gap-up start; here's why

Stock market today, US-Iran deal: Indian stock market is likely to see a gap-up start on Monday morning, as a handful of reports suggest the US and Iran were close to finalise a deal to end the Iran war. Asia markets jumped today amid reports Iran was ready to surrender enriched uranium as part of US proposed peace deal, while crude oil prices fell below $100 a dollar mark.

The US President, Donald Trump in a social media post said: "If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one." The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu in a X post said he spoke with Trump about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump though tapered some expectations, saying the negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and that he had informed US representatives not to rush into a deal. "The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed," he said.

Market outlook

Emkay Global remained constructive on markets, saying its optimism is based on the expectation that West Asia hostilities will resolve in the coming weeks. "Overall, market appears to be pricing in a post-war normalization in estimates and multiples," it said.

President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory," he said.

Brent oil futures for August delivery plunged 3.78 per cent to $96.45 a barrel. Japan's equity benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 3 per cent, while markets across China, Korea and Hong Kong jumped up to 0.8 per cent. Gift Nifty was up 269 points, or 1.14 per cent, at 23,960, hinting at gap-up a start for the domestic market.

Global sentiment improved after both the United States and Iran signalled progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of a gradual easing in regional tensions and reducing immediate concerns around global energy supply disruptions. However, remarks from Donald Trump stating that the US is “not rushing” to secure a peace agreement with Iran reinforced the view that negotiations may remain prolonged and complex, keeping broader uncertainty elevated," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm.

"Crude oil prices have corrected sharply, marking a significant pullback from recent highs above the $100–105 zone. The decline in oil prices is being viewed as a meaningful positive for India’s macroeconomic outlook, as softer energy prices help ease concerns around inflation, import costs and corporate profitability," he said.