Stock to buy: Clean Max shares offer 31% upside, says Antique; initiates with 'Buy'

Stock to buy: Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage on Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions (CleanMax), India's largest commercial and industrial (C&I) renewable energy provider with an estimated 12 per cent national share, with a'Buy' rating and a target of Rs 1,711 that suggested 31 per cent potential upside on the counter. 

Antique said data centre and AI customers already make up 42 per cent of Clean Max's contracted book, placing CleanMax at the centre of India's hyperscaler build-out. It expects the company's operational capacity to scale 2.5 times, reaching 7.8 GW by FY29. 

The domestic brokerage said Clean Max, which had 3.1 GW of operational power sales capacity and a 5.7 GW contracted portfolio at end FY26, supplies firm-priced green power directly to 588 corporates under 23-year bilateral contracts at a 30-45 per cent discount to grid tariffs, and does not bid in utility auctions. 

This relationship-driven model differentiates it from tender-based peers, with 74 per cent of new capacity sourced from repeat customers, over 95 per cent of the book rated 'A-' or better, and no contract renegotiated against the company since inception.

"The largest and most differentiated C&I platform CleanMax is the number one C&I renewables platform in India, roughly twice the operational scale of its nearest competitor, offering a one-stop solution under five structures: onsite, group captive, third-party open access, inter-state supply and energy services, across ten states and four countries. Origination is relationship-led: 588 customers, 1,280 PPAs and a near-threequarters repeat rate are far harder to dislodge than a low auction bid," Antique said.

The brokerage believes that the economics also beat utility renewables, with realisations near Rs 3.85/kWh against about Rs 2.5/kWh at auction and a 47 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY23-26. 

"A capital-light model, supported by groupcaptive structures and co-investors such as Apple, Osaka Gas and Toyota Tsusho, enables stabilised projects to generate 34 per cent cash RoE despite currently muted reported returns as the portfolio matures," Antique said.

As the under-execution book commissions, Antique expects Clean Max's revenue and Ebitda CAGR of 48 per cent and 63 per cent over FY26-FY28E. It expects consolidated Ebitda margin to widen from 59 per cent to 71 per cent and PAT reaching Rs 350 crore by FY28E. 

Net debt is projected to increase to Rs 21,900 crore by FY28E to fund growth, but the equity requirement is covered by operating cash flow, customer co-investment and IPO proceeds without dilution, keeping run-rate net debt/Ebitda near 5 times.

Antique said the biggest change in the order book is the rise of data centre and AI demand, from a marginal share to 42 per cent (2.4 GW) in just two years, even as the conventional book doubled. About 1.87 GW backs global emission-offset deals for big tech (Meta, Google, Amazon and Apple) and 0.51 GW supplies India-based data centres (Cisco, Equinix, STT, NTT and others), giving CleanMax an estimated 35-38 per cent share of India's hyperscaler energy deals.

"Two-thirds of this book is structured as 25-year contracts for difference, so the tariff is fixed and there is no merchant-price exposure. With a domestic data centre pipeline above 15 GW and each gigawatt of IT load implying roughly 6 GW of renewables plus storage, this is a long-duration, investment-grade demand pool concentrated in CleanMax's strongest states," it said.