Suzlon, BHEL, Adani Green, JSW Energy, Tata Power: Target prices - Brokerage hints at up to 57% gains; Q4 previews

In the domestic equity market, the utilities and power sector is likely gearing up for another modest quarter in Q4FY26. According to a recent sector update by JM Financial, investors should expect a subdued quarter of earnings. 

The brokerage noted that the upcoming results would likely see thermal and hydro players under pressure, while renewable energy (RE) and equipment manufacturers are expected to outperform.

Despite energy demand ticking up just 2% year-on-year during the quarter, signs of a fierce summer demand spike are already visible on the horizon. But for now, here is how the top players stack up as they head into the Q4 earnings season.

NTPC Ltd, Tata Power Company Ltd, and Adani Power Ltd

For traditional thermal giants, Q4 appears tepid. According to JM Financial, state-run NTPC is expected to post a subdued quarter, with revenue dipping 6% year-on-year to Rs 46,760 crore, and EBITDA of Rs 1,4000 crore as generation is estimated to decline by 7%.

Adani Power is also likely to report a muted showing on the generation front. The company is expected to log a relatively flat quarter with a 1% year-on-year revenue growth, it said. 

Meanwhile, Tata Power might see a YoY topline decline of 11%, primarily dragged down by its non-operational Mundra plant. 

NTPC (Add, target price: Rs 420), Tata Power (Buy, target price: Rs 429) and Adani Power (Buy, target price: Rs 177).

JSW Energy Ltd, Adani Green Energy Ltd, and CESC

JSW Energy is expected to be a standout performer on the topline front. The company's generation is expected to surge 37% YoY, largely led by acquisitions, the brokerage said noting “though higher finance costs and depreciation may weigh on its bottom line.”

In the renewable space, Adani Green’s revenue from power supply is projected to jump 15% YoY, backed by a strong 25% increase in generation, JM Financial noted.

CESC isexpected to report an 11% year-on-year topline growth, "supported by higher energy demand from its distribution circles".

JM Financial has issued a 'Buy' call on JSW Energy, Adani Green, and CESC, with target prices of Rs 614, Rs 1,204, and Rs 196, respectively.

Suzlon Energy Ltd

The brokerage has assigned a 'Buy' rating to Suzlon with a target price of Rs 64, implying the most upside of 56.8% from current levels of Rs 40.80. JM Financial’s optimism is fuelled by expectations that Suzlon's revenue could surge 51% YoY on account of higher dispatches, driven by robust operating leverage. 

“We expect dispatches to be at 874MW in 4QFY26 vs.573MW in 4QFY25,” it said.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) and Inox Wind Ltd

Alongside Suzlon, state-run BHEL is expected to have a positive quarter with a 12% revenue rise, driven by a pickup in execution and increasing share of new orders, the brokerage said.

Inox Wind is also in the fast lane, with revenues expected to jump 30%. “Execution likely to increase to 310MW vs 236MW in 4QFY25,” the brokerage said.

BHEL carries a ‘Buy’ tag with target price of Rs 345, while Inox Wind (Add) has a target price of Rs 120

NHPC Ltd and SJVN Ltd

Both NHPC and SJVN are facing subdued hydro generation. NHPC’s revenue could tumble 24% year-on-year. However, SJVN might dodge the overall revenue hit, expecting a 40% topline growth thanks to an incremental contribution from Buxar TPP, JM Financial said.

NHPC (Add, target price: Rs 84) and SJVN (Sell, target price: Rs 67)

Indian Energy Exchange (Add), Coal India (Reduce), ACME Solar Holdings (Buy), Torrent Power (Reduce)

ACME Solar Holdings is expected to report a solid 16% year-on-year revenue jump to Rs 560 crore, aided by its fully operational 3GW capacity. JM Financial has set a target price of Rs 289.

Similarly, the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) is expected to report a 26% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by volume growth of 22% YoY, it said. The brokerage has a target price of Rs 145.

The brokerage sees Coal India's revenue flat at Rs 37400 crore (-1% YoY). JM Financial has a target price of Rs 420. 

Torrent Power is expected to report around 5% topline growth, which will be supported by a 3% increase in generation, the brokerage said. However, this growth will likely be offset by a seasonally weak quarter in the transmission segment, JM Financial noted with a target price of Rs 1,410.