Suzlon, Inox Wind shares: Why Nuvama turned cautious on wind energy players; target prices

Nuvama Institutional Equities on Thursday said it is cautious on Suzlon Energy Ltd and Inox Wind Ltd as growth for wind players beyond FY28 could moderate amid the increasing shift towards Solar plus BESS tenders. It also remained cautious on IEX and maintained 'Reduce' rating on the stock rating, as the overhang of market coupling continued to hinder growth plans. 

"While the long-term growth story remains intact for Tata Power (downgraded to REDUCE in Q4) and Power Grid (upgraded to HOLD in Q4), current valuations appear stretched with limited near-term triggers," Nuvama said.

What the domestic brokerage really likes in the power sector are CESC Ltd and NTPC Ltd. 

Nuvama retained 'Buy' on Suzlon Energy and Inox Wind, but its target on Suzlon at Rs 55 suggests no major upside. Its target of Rs 123 on Inox Wind hints at 44 per cent potential upside. NTPC and CESC have been assigned targets that suggest 24-25 per cent upsides. Here's table reflecting Nuvama's valuation estimates and target prices for the power stocks:-

  
Nuvama said power demand surged in May owing to an intense summer heatwave, rising 11.6 per cent YoY on an aggregate despite the same average temperature at 30.9 degrees in May 2026 against 30.7 degrees in May 2025. Peak demand hit an all-time high of 270GW in May 2026, up from 231GW in May 2025, while all-India thermal PLF was at 72 per cent in May 2026 against 68 per cent in May 2025.

Nuvama said renewable tendering remained strong, with 368GW under various stages. That said, Solar + BESS now account for 50 per cent of open tenders, driven by its ability to meet evening peak power demand.

All-India installed capacity at end-April 26 was 537GW aided by RE addition of 4GW in April 26 and 51GW in FY26. 

"Solar-hour supply continued to outpace demand with low deficit, whereas non-solar hours witnessed a dip in supply. IEX’s May-26 electricity volumes rose 18.6 per cent YoY aided by a DAM surge of 25% YoY while RTM grew 16 per cent with solar-hour prices remaining low at Rs 2.4/kWh in May-26," it said.

The March quarter was subdued, with power demand growing just 1.9 per cent YoY, resulting in lower thermal PLF, weaker merchant tariffs and renewable curtailment in select regions. 

"Transmission execution improved as RoW issues eased, though labour shortages continued to impact EPC players in ME. The outlook has improved in Q1FY27, with demand up 8 per cent in YTDFY27 and RE additions accelerating, supporting a likely stronger FY27E," Nuvama said.