Vodafone Idea Q1 results today: Key expectations, share price targets ahead of earnings

Vodafone Idea Ltd, whose shares have rallied 89 per cent in the past one year, is all set to report its June quarter results on Tuesday. The telecom operator is expected to report a net loss of Rs 5,391 crore for the quarter, as per Bloomberg consensus estimates. Revenue for the quarter is pegged at Rs 11,502 crore. Network expenses and IT outsourcing costs are estimated at Rs 2,421 crore, licence fees and spectrum usage charges at Rs 959 crore, roaming and access charges at Rs 1,096 crore, and finance costs at Rs 4,717 crore.

Average revenue per user (ARPU) is seen improving sequentially on improved subscriber mix and 5G rollouts.

Subscriber gain likely QoQ

Centrum Broking expects Vodafone Idea to report a gain of 2 lakh in subscribers to 19.2 crore sequentially, with growth in ARPU seen at 1.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 176 per month. This would be led by ongoing migration of users from 2G-to-4G technology and higher number of days in the quarter, Centrum said. The management commentary on the ongoing capex activity and fund raise program would be keenly watched, it said.

JM Financial expects VIL is expected to report net subscriber addition, including M2M, of 3 lakh in Q1FY27. It added 2 lakh subscribers in April-May 2026 as per TRAI data against a net subscriber loss of 1 lakh in Q4FY26.

"Also, ARPU (including M2M) could go up by 1.9 per cent QoQ to Rs 177 (Rs 174 in Q4FY26) and ARPU (excluding M2M) by 2.1 per cent QoQ to Rs 194 (Rs 190 in Q4FY26) due to one more day QoQ in 1QFY27, continued upgrades and improved subscriber mix. Hence, we expect revenue to rise 1.8 per cent QoQ to Rs 11,500 crore, reported Ebitda to be up 1.7 per cent QoQ at Rs 5,000 crore," it said.  JM Financial sees net loss for the quarter at Rs 5,320 crore.

Kotak Institutional Equities, which sees Q1 loss at Rs 6,608 crore, said it sees revenue for Vodafone Idea to grow 3.5 per cent YoY at Rs 11,022 crore.

"We expect revenues and Ebitda to increase by 0.9 per cent/(-)0.3 per cent QoQ due to a combination of better ARPU/subscriber mix more than offset by higher network/other opex during the quarter," Kotak said.

Vodafone Idea target prices
Ahead of its Q1 results, Vodafone Idea had 10 'Sell' calls, eight 'Hold' calls and three 'Buy' calls. Its consensus target stood at Rs 11.95 implying 7.4 per cent potential downside. Among 10 recent calls in July, Macquarie suggested 'Underperform' on the stock with target of Rs 9. ICICI Securities suggested 'Reduce' and a target of Rs 11. Nomura is 'Neutral' with a target of Rs 12.60. Ambit Capital has the highest target at Rs 19 on the scrip.