Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty down 182 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open lower on Monday, set for their worst monthly performance in six years, tracking declines across Asia after ​oil surged above amid an expanding Middle East war ‌ sapped risk appetite. Traders' sentiments are worsened by inflation and recessional concerns across the globe.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 182.10 points, or 0.80 per cent, up at 22,634.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Stock markets slumped in Asia on Monday as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict, bringing a spike in inflation. Nikkei and KOSPI dropped nearly 4 per cent each, while Hang Seng was down 2 per cent.

Indian equities are set to begin the week on a weak footing, with early indications pointing towards a gap-down opening. The pressure is largely external, as escalating geopolitical tensions and surging crude oil prices continue to dominate investor sentiment, said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.

US stocks tumbled on Friday with all three major US indexes closing at their lowest levels in over seven months  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 793.47 points, or 1.73 per cent, to 45,166.64, the S&P ​500 lost 108.31 points, or 1.67 per cent, to 6,368.85 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 459.72 points, or 2.15 per cent, to 20,948.36.

Brent crude rose 3 per cent to $115.98 ​a barrel, bringing its gains for the month to 60 per cent. US crude climbed 3 per cent to $102.52, making a monthly ​rise of 53 per cent. In other commodity markets, gold ​was down 1 per cent at $4,445 an ounce, having drawn scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against inflation risks.

The US dollar held broadly steady on Monday, poised for its strongest monthly gain since July as investors fret about the ramification of a long war in the Middle East. The dollar index was at 100.14 in early trading. Traders in the Indian foreign exchange market brace for a volatile week after the central bank tightened limits on lenders' net open FX positions.

Market direction is likely to remain closely linked to geopolitical developments and energy price movements, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should remain agile, avoid aggressive leverage and prioritise capital preservation. A hedged and selective approach, supported by strict risk management, will be essential until clearer directional cues emerge."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,367.30 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,566.15 crore on a net-net basis. Overseas investors have dumped Indian stocks worth Rs 1.14 lakh crore in March 2026 so far.

The weakness in global equity markets following the war in West Asia, steady depreciation of Indian rupee, fears of decline in remittances from the Gulf region and concerns surrounding the impact of high crude price on India’s growth and corporate earnings contributed to the sustained selling by FPIs, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, the market is still forming lower highs on daily charts and is trading well below short-term averages, which is largely negative. The short-term market texture is extremely volatile and is likely to remain so in the near future, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"23,000/74,500 would act as an immediate resistance zone. As long as the market remains below this level, weak sentiment may continue. On the downside, the market could retest levels of 22,600-22,500/73,300-73,000. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the market to 22,200/72,100. Above 23,000/74500, a pullback could continue up to 23,400-23,500/75,700-76,000," he said.

Nifty remains in a strong bearish trend, characterized by a formation of lower highs and lower lows. The previous swing low of 22,471 is a crucial level; a breakdown below this could drag the index towards the next key support at 22,150, followed by the 52-week low at 21,743, said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart.

"For any meaningful trend reversal, the Nifty needs to shift its structure by forming higher highs, which requires a breakout above the recent swing high of 23,465. Sustaining above this level could lead to further upside towards 23,850," he said.

Nifty has formed a long-legged 'Doji' candlestick on weekly charts, with nearly identical open and close levels, hinting at potential trend reversal, said Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. "The recent swing high of 23,465 now acts as a key resistance; a move above it could trigger short covering. On the downside, the swing low at 22,471 offers near-term support."
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank is positioned in the lagging quadrant of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), indicating weak momentum and lack of relative strength. The immediate support is placed in the 51,800–51,700 zone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its weakness towards 51,400, followed by 51,000 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 52,700–52,800 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance," he said.

Nifty Bank formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling resumption of downtrend after two sessions of pullback. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, and rising crude oil prices which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"It is likely to consolidate in the range of 54,150-51,400 amid high volatility driven by rising geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment. It needs to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis. On the downside, a breach below last week's low 51,323 will open further downside towards 50,700 and 50,000," it adds.