Exit poll twists peak: Bengal remains a nail-biter, Assam goes BJP, Kerala swings UDF

Exit Poll Results 2026 today | India Today-Axis My India has projected a massive win for the BJP in Assam, UDF in Kerala, and Vijay's TVK in Tamil Nadu. If these numbers hold, Tamil Nadu will be a major upset as Vijay's TVK will be party number one in its very first election.     

In Assam, NDA is likely to get 48% of the votes and 88-100 seats, while Congress may settle for just 38% of the votes and 24-36 seats. 

So far, four exit polls are showing the BJP victory in West Bengal. 

Axis My India's exit poll numbers for West Bengal will be released on Thursday (April 30).    

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In Assam, the BJP-led NDA, under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, is hoping to secure a third straight term, while the TMC is facing its toughest battle in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, all eyes are on M K Stalin and whether the DMK can hold off a resurgent AIADMK-BJP alliance.

Assam Exit Poll Results 2026 (126 seats)

Assam remains one of the BJP's strongest eastern bastions, and the 2026 election is being viewed as a direct referendum on Sarma's leadership. Sarma has served as Chief Minister since May 2021 and has emerged as one of the BJP's most influential regional leaders. The BJP-led NDA currently holds a dominant position in the 126-member Assembly.

Pollsters	BJP	Congress	AIUDF	Others
India Today-Axis My India	88-100	24-36		0-3
People's Pulse	68-72	22-26
P-MARQ	82-94	30-40		1-5
Matrize	85-95	25-32		6-12
JVC	88-101	22-33		2-5
Poll of Polls	88	27		7

READ FOR MORE | Who is winning Assam? Exit polls give BJP’s Himanta a big edge, leave Congress stunned

Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026 (140 seats)

IndiaToday-Axis My India has projected a major win for Congress-led UDF in Kerala. 

Pollsters	LDF	UDF	BJP	Others
India Today-Axis My India	49-62	78-90	0-3
People's Pulse	55-65	75-85	0-3
P-MARQ	62-69	71-79	1-4	0-3
Matrize	60-65	70-75	3-5	2-4
JVC	52-61	72-84	3-7	0-0
Poll of Exit Polls	59	77	2	2

Kerala witnessed a three-cornered contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the opposition United Democratic Front led by the Indian National Congress, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is seeking to expand its footprint.

Polling in the southern state took place in a single phase on April 9, with an overall voter turnout of 78.27%.

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The LDF is attempting to retain power after its historic 2021 re-election, while the UDF is banking on anti-incumbency and local dissatisfaction. Key contests are expected in Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kannur, and Ernakulam, where close margins and candidate strength could matter.

In Kerala's 140-seat Assembly, even small vote swings can have an outsized impact, making exit polls especially closely watched.   

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Results

Stalin, who became Chief Minister in 2021 after leading the DMK back to power, is set to return as chief minister for the second term, according to four exit polls. However, Axis My India has predicted a solid edge for Vijay's TVK.  

The People's Pulse has predicted 125-145 for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for AIADMK-BJP, and 18-24 for TVK. Matrize has given 122-132 seats for DMK-led alliance, 87-100 for NDA, and 10-12 for TVK.

Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats, with the magic mark being 118. 

Pollsters	DMK	AIADMK	TVK	Others
India Today-Axis My India	92-110	22-32	98-120	0-0
P-MARQ	125-145	65-85	16-26	1-6
Matrize	122-132	65-85	16-26	1-6
People's Pulse	125-145	65-80	18-24	2-6
Chankya Strategies	145-160	52-65	0-0	18-26

The BJP, despite remaining a smaller force in Tamil Nadu politics, has attempted to expand its footprint through its alliance with the AIADMK. Actor-turned-politician Vijay has added unpredictability to the contest, especially among younger and urban voters. 

MUST READ | Stalin again in Tamil Nadu? Vijay set for blockbuster debut, AIADMK struggles

West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2026

The most closely watched contest of the election season remains West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee is attempting to secure a fourth consecutive term as Chief Minister. Banerjee has been in office since 2011 and continues to dominate Bengal politics, but the BJP has significantly expanded its organisational presence since the 2021 Assembly polls. 

Pollsters	BJP	TMC	Congress	Left
India Today-Axis My India
JVC	138-159	131-152	0-2	0-0
P-MARQ	150-175	118-138	0-0	0-0
Matrize	146-161	125-140	0-0	0-0
People's Pulse	95-110	177-187	1-3	0-1
Chankya Strategies	150-160	130-140	0-0	0-0
Janmat Polls	80-90	195-205	1-3	0-1
Poll Diary	142-171	99-127	3-5	2-3
Poll of Polls	137	147	2	2

The second and final phase of polling across 142 constituencies saw 92.09% voter turnout till 5 pm. 

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The BJP has framed the election as an opportunity to break the TMC's long dominance in the state, while Banerjee has accused central agencies and security forces of attempting to influence the electoral process. 

Puducherry Exit Polls Results 2026

In Puducherry, Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA and 6-8 for the DMK-Congress. It said the TVK is likely to get 2-4 seats in the assembly. There are 30 elected seats in Puducherry.

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Pollsters	BJP-plus	Congres-plus	Others
India Today-Axis My India	16-20	6-8	3-7
People's Pulse	16-19	10-12	1-2
Poll of Exit Polls	17	9	3

The counting of votes for all five assemblies -- West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam -- will take place on May 4.