Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 14 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are like to open on a muted note on Wednesday amid the cautious undertone in the global market around the US-Iran peace delas and selloff in the technological stocks. However, a hawkish US Fed may dent sentiments with traders looking at the progress of Monsoon in India.

Indian equities are expected to trade sideways with a marginal negative bias in the near term amid weak global cues, continued foreign Institutional Investor outflows, and uncertainty surrounding the proposed US-Iran ceasefire, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Profit booking emerged, supported by lower crude oil prices and FIIs outflows, he said.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 13.50 points, or 0.06 per cent, up at 23,866, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stocks were wobbly on Wednesday, a day after a global selloff in technology and semiconductor shares. KOSPI gained nearly 3 per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Seng were down half a per cent.

The US stocks settled lower on Tuesday, dragged down by sharp losses in semiconductor stocks as  investors scrutinized growing debt-funded ‌AI spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47.22 points, or 0.09 per cent, to 51,665.49, the S&P 500 lost 107.32 points, or 1.44 per cent, to 7,365.47 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 579.56 points, or 2.21 per cent, to 25,587.04.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Oil prices extended this week's losses. Brent crude futures were down 0.5 per cent at $76.71 a barrel US West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.5 per cent to $72.85. The dollar index rose 0.02 per cent to 101.43, holding near its one-year high. Spot gold was down 0.48 per cent to $4,088.71 an ounce as higher rate expectations reduced the appeal. In cryptos, bitcoin rose 0.84 per cent to $62,914.94.

The decline was largely influenced by weakness across global, dampening overall market sentiment, while the rupee weakened following the day's market pressure, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We advocate a stock-specific approach, favouring relative outperformers while maintaining disciplined risk management."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 17.86 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 680.21 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
The market selling pressure, which intensified post-breakdown. A long bearish candle on daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts indicate further weakness from the current levels. For day traders, the key levels are 23,900 or the 50-day SMA level for Nifty, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For the Sensex, the pivotal level would be 76,500. This will act as a trend decider level. Below this, the market could slip till 23,640-23,575/75,500-75,300. On the flip side, if the index moves above 23,900/76,500, it could bounce back to 24,000-24,050/76,800-77,000," he said.

The market bias has turned cautiously negative in the short term. As long as Sensex holds above the 75,800–76,000 support zone, the broader structure remains stable and a pullback cannot be ruled out. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed around 77,100–77,300, where fresh selling pressure may emerge, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

The Nifty50 found support exactly at the rising trendline formed by connecting multiple highs and lows on the hourly chart, which provides a basis to expect a decent recovery in the near term, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Resistance is placed at 23,950–24,000 on the higher end. The crucial intraday support is placed at 23,700, below which serious selling might come."

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling profit booking at higher levels around the 58,000 levels. Some consolidation after 5,000 points up move in just 3 weeks cannot be ruled out in the Bank Nifty. The overall structure is positive, and any dips should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks in a staggered manner, said Bajaj Broking.

"Key support is placed at 56,000 levels being the confluence of the 38.2% retracement of the entire pullback 53,027-57954 and the recent breakout area. On the higher side key resistance is placed around 58,300 and 59,250 levels in the coming sessions being the measuring implication of the recent range breakout," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a sizable bearish candle on the daily charts, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. It continues to trade above its short and long-term moving averages, suggesting that the broader trend remains intact. The daily RSI is currently placed around the 61 mark, indicating a potential loss of momentum in the near term, said  Sudeep Shah of Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

"Going forward, the immediate support for the index is placed in the 56,800–56,700 zone. A breakdown below the 56,700 level could lead to further weakness, with the 20-day EMA, currently positioned at 56,173 acting as the next crucial support. On the upside, the 57,500–57,600 zone is likely to act as a key resistance," it added.