Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty up 222 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open higher on Monday and snap recent losses linked to higher crude prices, as analysts assess stock-specific cues from quarterly earnings ​of Reliance and Axis Bank.  sentiment remains subdued amid ​higher crude prices and persistent FII selling led by Iran war crisis.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 221.70 points, or 0.93 per cent, up at 24,144.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks march higher in early trade. KOSPI soared 2.25 per cent, while Nikkei was up 1.4 per cent. Hang Seng also crept higher.

Markets are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, crude oil movements and foreign fund flows, with near-term sentiment likely to stay cautious, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "The lack of meaningful progress on the geopolitical front is expected to keep pressure on energy prices, rupee and equity markets."

US Stocks ended mostly higher, bolstered by optimism for possible negotiations between the US and Iran to end their war and a surge in Intel shares that extended ‌the rally in semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16 per cent to 49,230.71, the S&P gained 500 0.80 per cent to 7,165.08 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.63 per cent to 24,836.60.

Oil prices rose and the dollar inched higher as stalled US-Iran peace talks prolonged the disruption of Middle East energy ‌exports, ⁠unsettling markets and policymakers ahead of a packed week of central bank meetings. Brent crude futures up about 2 per cent at $107.49 a barrel and US ​West Texas Intermediate at $96.17 a barrel, up $1.77 in early trade on Monday.

Gold fell on Monday, pressured by a firm dollar, while higher oil prices heightened fears of inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates as US-Iran ​peace talks remained stalled. Spot gold was down 0.3 per cent at $4,694.26 ‌per ounce. The dollar ​index was at 98.623.

Given the prevailing macro uncertainty, elevated crude prices, and persistent global risks, investors should maintain a cautious and selective approach, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders are advised to remain disciplined, avoid aggressive leverage, and prioritise capital preservation. We reiterate our preference for stocks in the energy and metals space."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,827.87 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 4,700.71 crore on a net-net basis.

An important trend in FPI activity is that they have been buying selectively in many mid and small caps even while selling in large caps across sectors. The global trend of buying in AI stocks which was dominant last year is continuing this year too, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market slipped below the 50-day SMA of 24,300/78,000 due to profit booking at higher levels as selling pressure intensified, post-breakdown. Technically, it has formed a bearish candle on weekly charts and a reversal formation has appeared on daily charts, which supports further weakness from the current levels, said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"We are of the view  that 24,000/77,000 would act as a crucial reference point for traders. Below this level, the correction wave is likely to continue, with the index potentially slipping to the 20-day SMA or 23,635/76,000. Further downside could also continue, dragging the index to the 23,500-23450/75,700-75,500 range," it adds.

Nifty50 closed below its 100-week EMA, which further reflects a deterioration in the broader trend and signals a cautious outlook in the medium term. On the weekly timeframe, the technical indicator stands at 43.47, suggesting subdued strength and a possible continuation of the bearish undertone, said Choice Broking.

"On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 24,000, followed by 24,150 and 24,350 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 23,800 and then at 23,700. A decisive break down below 23,500 could trigger further downside pressure. Given the current volatility, traders are advised to remain cautious and adhere to strict risk management practices," it adds.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a small bearish candlestick pattern on weekly charts, signalling consolidation with corrective bias after recent strong up move. Bank Nifty in the last three sessions witnessed profit booking after rallying more than 7500 points in just 3 weeks which has pushed the weekly stochastic oscillators into overbought territory, said Bajaj Broking.

"Some consolidation at current level cannot be ruled out. We expect the index to consolidate in the range of 54,500-57,500. From a short-term perspective, support is placed in the range of 54,500–54,000 zone, being the confluence of the recent low and 38.2 per cent retracement of the last 3 weeks pullback," it adds.

Bank Nifty failed to sustain above its 100-day moving average and has corrected nearly 2.5 per cent from its recent high. The shrinking MACD histogram bars further highlight weakening bullish momentum, as bears gradually gain traction, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 55,500-55,400 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 55,000, followed by 54,500 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 56,500–56,600 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance," it adds.