Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 70 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open little changed on Tuesday as investors navigate persistent foreign outflows and a depreciating rupee, while a trade deal with the US remains elusive. The FPI selling was accompanied by a weak rupee, which has hit fresh record lows for three straight sessions, which remains a concern for traders.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 70.20 points, or 0.27 per cent, down at 26,038.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian stocks tumbled as investors adopted a cautious approach ahead of a slate of US data. KOSPI Was down nearly 1.75 per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped 1.25-1.5 per cent each.

Key economic data will be closely tracked for cues on growth momentum and monetary policy expectations, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Markets are expected to trade in a consolidation mode in the near term, with heightened volatility in the broader markets as year end approaches amid thin volumes and global uncertainty."

Wall Street closed lower on Monday as investors braced for a slew of economic data later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41.49 points, or 0.09 per cent, to 48,416.56, the S&P 500 lost 10.90 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 6,816.51 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 137.76 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 23,057.41.

The dollar index held steady at 98.295, but remained rooted near its lowest level in nearly two months. The defensive mood kept risk assets under pressure, including bitcoin, which hit a two-week low in the previous session and was steady below $86,000. Safe haven gold flirted with eight-week highs and bought $4,307.69 per ounce.

Oil prices fell as investors considered disruptions linked to escalating US-Venezuelan tensions with oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Brent crude futures fell 0.4 per cent to $60.32 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.6 a barrel, down 0.39 per cent.

Choppiness is likely to persist due to the weekly expiry and ongoing currency volatility. Sector focus should remain on banking and IT, while defensive and commodity-linked themes may offer tactical opportunities, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders are advised to maintain disciplined risk management and avoid averaging into underperforming positions."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,468.32 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,792.25 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

25,900/84,850 and 25,850/84,600 would act as key support zones. As long as the market is trading above these levels, the positive sentiment is likely to continue, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities. "On the higher side, 26,100/85,500 would be the immediate resistance zone for day traders. A breach of 26,100/85,500 could push the market up to 26,200-26,250/85,800. However, below 25,850/86,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable," he adds.

Nifty50 faced resistance near 26,050 before closing slightly lower. The index encountered resistance at the falling trendline, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The hourly RSI has witnessed a bearish crossover and is trending lower, indicating bearishness in the market. Overall, it is likely to remain range-bound between 25,900 and 26,100. A decisive move beyond this range could trigger a directional move."
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Bank Nifty has formed a bullish candlestick pattern and a follow through strength above the same will open further upside towards the all-time high of 60,100 in the coming sessions. Index on expected lines is seen consolidating and forming a base in the range of 58,500-60,100, said Bajaj Broking.

"We expect the index to extend the current consolidation in the coming sessions. Key short-term support is placed at 58,200-58,600 levels being the confluence of the recent low and the major breakout area. On the higher side a breakout above the all-time high of 60,100 will signal acceleration of up move towards 60,500 levels," it adds.

The zone of 59,500–59,600 is likely to act as an immediate resistance zone for Nifty Bank. A sustained move above 59,600 could lead to Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 59,900, followed by 60,200, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "On the downside, the zone of 59,100-59,000 is likely to act as a strong support."