Scaling India’s renewables face considerable land, water & climate challenges: CEEW

India has a renewable energy (RE) potential of over 24,000 GW. However, reaching the 7,000 GW required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 will demand a comprehensive approach to addressing challenges such as land access, climate risks, land conflicts, and population density, according to a study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), a think tank.

Currently, India has an installed RE capacity of 150 GW. While managing constraints up to 1,500 GW is relatively feasible, the study, titled Unlocking India’s RE and Green Hydrogen Potential: An Assessment of Land, Water, and Climate Nexus, highlights that deployment beyond 1,500 GW could face significant challenges as multiple constraints intensify, narrowing the pathway to the net-zero target.

Renewable energy, including solar, wind, and green hydrogen, is crucial for achieving India’s climate goals. Scaling up these technologies will require strategic land use, improved water management, and resilient power grid infrastructure.

The study maps India’s RE and green hydrogen potential by analyzing the entire country’s landmass and applying real-world constraints using detailed 5x5 km grid cells. This approach offers a more practical assessment of what can be developed and where.

It finds that population density significantly limits the realization of India’s RE potential, with only 29% of onshore wind potential and 27% of solar potential located in areas with a population density lower than 250 people/km².

Land conflicts further restrict deployment, with only about 35% of onshore wind potential and 41% of solar potential situated in areas free from historical land conflicts. However, earthquakes are less of a concern, as 83% of onshore wind and 77% of solar potential are located in low to moderate seismic zones.

The study also identifies states with high unconstrained RE potential, such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Ladakh. Rajasthan (6,464 GW), Madhya Pradesh (2,978 GW), Maharashtra (2,409 GW), and Ladakh (625 GW) have significant low-cost solar potential, while Karnataka (293 GW), Gujarat (212 GW), and Maharashtra (184 GW) offer considerable wind potential.

Dr. Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of CEEW, said, “While our RE potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges. From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation.”

The study highlights that Odisha and Madhya Pradesh, with high RE potential backed by land banks and infrastructure to evacuate renewable power and manage seasonality, could emerge as key players in meeting India’s renewable energy ambitions in the coming decades.

Hemant Mallya, Fellow at CEEW, said, “Land and water are critical resources for scaling up RE and green hydrogen in India. Preventing desertification and finding innovative solutions to address land availability, such as agro-voltaics in horticulture and rooftop solar in dense Indian cities, will be essential. Moreover, as RE projects move into areas with higher climate risks, insurance companies might increasingly hesitate to provide coverage.”

The study recommends a comprehensive approach involving all stakeholders to ensure that India’s ambitious RE and green hydrogen targets are met sustainably and equitably.

“States should establish graded land banks that consider RE quality, water availability, and proximity to infrastructure to ensure rapid project development. Evaluating and enhancing grid infrastructure and resilience are crucial, particularly in regions with high RE seasonality, to support large-scale deployment,” it concluded.