Gold prices rise Rs 10,000 in October so far, up 53% in 2025 so far; more upside left?

Gold prices have been rallying sharply higher lately as the yellow metal has been scaling new highs on a regular basis. After hitting the key levels of $4,000 per ounce in the global market, gold topped Rs 1,25,000 per 10-gram mark in Indian markets on Tuesday, extending the bull-run.

In the Indian markets, Gold prices have soared nearly 16 per cent in a month from Rs 1,08,000-levels to Rs 1,25,750. Gold has appreciated around Rs 10,000 per 10 grams in October so far. In the current calendar year, gold has surged nearly 53 per cent, while it has zoomed nearly 65 per cent in the last one year. Dollar is on track to deliver its best annual returns since the 1979 oil crisis.

In the international markets, gold prices held above the $4,000 level on Thursday, as investors assessed the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, while broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty alongside expectations for US rate cuts sustained bullish sentiment for the metal.

Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery said that the main driver of the decline appears to be the technically overbought conditions in the bullion following the recent surge. If we see more positive developments in the Middle East or on the trade front, further upside in gold prices could be limited as investors would continue to lock in gains.

Gold's rally is being fueled by strong central bank demand and a growing shift toward safe-haven assets through ETFs. While recent Fed meeting minutes have raised some uncertainty about aggressive rate cuts, leading to a temporary spike in the dollar index, said Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities. "Gold has support at $3980-3940 while resistance at $4055-4085."

Gold has been rallying higher thanks to key factors like geopolitical tensions including the Middle East crisis and the war in Ukraine, alongside strong central bank gold buying, ETF inflows, US rate cut expectations, and economic uncertainties stemming from tariffs. Weak US dollar has also added to the appeal of the yellow metal.

Gold prices began climbing sharply in 2024 as central banks and investors alike turned to the precious metal as a safe haven amid mounting geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty. While some countries accelerated their gold purchases to strengthen reserves, others seized the opportunity to cash in on elevated prices by selling significant volumes.

Retail investors still have several options available to them to participate even at these lofty levels. Digital or gold investment accounts offer convenient, low-entry access. Likewise gold ETFs provide good strong liquidity and low costs. More experienced investors can explore futures, options, or CFDs for leveraged exposure, said Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets.

"Investors should remain sensible and cautious in the approach and enter gradually, using dollar cost averaging strategies, diversifying across instruments, and monitoring key triggers. Overall, gold remains an attractive hedge and diversification asset, but disciplined position sizing and awareness of volatility are essential to capture gains while managing risks," he said.

According to a report from World Gold Council, global gold reserves rose to an unprecedented $4.64 trillion in October 2025, up 52.9 per cent from the end of 2024. All the top-10 countries' central bank increased their reserved at least by 50 per cent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

Leading the table, US has gold reserves valued $1.04 trillion, followed by Germany at $427.77 billion. Italy, France and Russia are other names in top with gold reserves valued at $313.06 billion, $311.16 billion and $296 billion, respectively. India with gold reserves of $122.36 billion is ranked eight at China ($293.96 billion) and Switzerland (132.78 billion).

“Gold at $4,000 shows the confidence in fiat currencies and government debt is weakening. Central banks are buying record volumes, investors are following, and this combination has created a powerful price momentum, said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. “Central banks have become the quiet force behind this climb,” he said.