He called gold's rally and silver's peak. Now he's warning investors to stay away from bullion

Investors who followed Manish Banthia's bullish call on gold in 2023 and his warning on silver in late 2025 were rewarded. Now, the ICICI Prudential AMC executive believes the case for adding fresh money to precious metals has weakened considerably.

In an interview with ET Markets, Manish Banthia, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at ICICI Prudential AMC, said gold currently appears to be the least attractive among the three major asset classes of equity, debt and bullion, and advised investors against allocating incremental capital to the yellow metal.

"At current valuations, we would avoid allocating incremental capital to gold," Banthia told ET Markets. "Among the three—equity, debt and gold — gold currently appears the least attractive."

Banthia, who oversees debt assets worth around ₹2.7 lakh crore, had turned bullish on gold in November 2023 when sentiment toward the metal was weak and prices had delivered little over the previous decade. He also flagged a peak in silver prices on December 29, 2025, a call that subsequently proved accurate.

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According to Banthia, the factors that made gold attractive in 2023 have largely reversed. Back then, valuations were reasonable and investor interest was subdued despite supportive macroeconomic trends such as rising inflation, central bank purchases following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and growing concerns over de-dollarisation.

However, sharp gains in 2024 and 2025 changed the picture.

"While the underlying narrative remained unchanged, valuations expanded rapidly, and sentiment became overly optimistic," he said.

Banthia noted that India accounted for roughly 5% of incremental global silver demand during the period, with ETF investments rather than industrial demand driving much of the buying. Such flows, he said, contributed significantly to higher prices and turned precious metals into a crowded trade.

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Although he remains positive on long-term themes such as de-dollarisation, rising US debt and changes in the global monetary order, Banthia cautioned that these structural trends do not necessarily justify buying gold at current prices.

"Recognising a structural trend is different from making a near-term investment decision," he told ET Markets. "Current gold prices already reflect a significant portion of that narrative."

He also pointed out that central bank demand for gold has moderated, with some institutions booking profits after the strong rally. Meanwhile, higher gold prices have already increased the metal's share in reserve portfolios, reducing the need for additional diversification.

Banthia's medium-term outlook favours equities over gold.

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"In 2022-23, gold was relatively undervalued. Today, the situation has reversed—gold looks expensive relative to equities," he said, adding that bullion is unlikely to outperform stocks over the next three to five years.

"A key mistake investors make is assuming that a good asset is always a good investment, regardless of price."

For investors deploying fresh money, Banthia prefers a balanced allocation between equities and debt. He believes debt offers attractive yields, while equities provide long-term growth opportunities.

On the equity side, he sees emerging markets as particularly attractive, with India topping the list for domestic investors. Banthia said valuations in India have moderated after appearing stretched in 2024, making the market more appealing. He also identified China as an attractive opportunity, while warning that AI-driven markets such as Taiwan and South Korea appear relatively expensive.

With foreign investor sentiment toward India turning cautious, Banthia believes the country is increasingly emerging as a contrarian opportunity rather than a crowded consensus trade.

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