Will gold prices rise after Akshaya Tritiya? What history shows

Gold has delivered a remarkable rally over the past year, rising nearly 56% from around ₹99,000 per 10 gm on Akshaya Tritiya 2025 to about ₹1.53 lakh currently. However, with prices cooling off from recent peaks near ₹1.8 lakh, investors are once again asking a familiar question ahead of the festival: Will gold continue to rise after Akshaya Tritiya, or is a pause likely?

What history tells us

Contrary to popular belief, gold does not always rally immediately after Akshaya Tritiya. Historical trends suggest a more nuanced pattern.

“Gold prices do not move in a straight line immediately after Akshaya Tritiya,” says Hariprasad K, Livelong Wealth, adding that while short-term movements may vary, the long-term trajectory remains upward. Over the past decade, gold has typically delivered 12–14% annual returns between one Akshaya Tritiya and the next, reinforcing its role as a long-term store of value rather than a tactical trade.

In the immediate aftermath of the festival, prices often enter a consolidation phase, largely due to profit booking after a pre-festival rally. Hariprasad notes that such corrections—usually in the 3–5% range—are a normal cooling-off period within a broader uptrend.

ALSO READ: SGB 2019–20 V gives 302% return: Exit now or hold for tax-free gains on maturity?

Rally before, pause after

Market behaviour around Akshaya Tritiya tends to follow a consistent pattern:

Prices often rise ahead of the festival, driven by demand expectations and global cues
Post-festival, the absence of a demand trigger can lead to sideways movement or mild correction

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich, points out that the belief that gold rises after Akshaya Tritiya is not consistently accurate. According to him, much of the festive demand is already priced in beforehand, and once the event passes, prices may stabilise or even soften slightly.

He emphasises that gold is not a festival-driven asset, but one influenced by global macro factors such as US interest rates, dollar strength, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks. “Akshaya Tritiya may influence buying behaviour, but it does not determine price direction,” he notes.

ALSO READ: Akshaya Tritiya 2026: How silver prices have moved since last year's Akshaya Tritiya

Current setup

At present, gold prices are about 16% lower from recent highs, reflecting profit booking after a sharp rally. This correction is being seen by many analysts as a potential entry point, rather than a reversal.

Hariprasad suggests that elevated prices this year may slightly alter consumer behaviour, with some buyers opting for exchange-led purchases (trading old gold for new) instead of fresh buying. While this may moderate incremental demand, it does not weaken the structural outlook.

Structural drivers remain intact

Experts broadly agree that gold’s long-term outlook remains strong.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, notes that the rally over the past year has been driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying. She believes that despite short-term volatility, underlying drivers such as rising global debt, fiscal uncertainty, and diversification away from the dollar continue to support gold prices.

Similarly, Manoj Jain of Prithvi Finmart maintains a bullish stance, expecting gold to remain in a long-term bull cycle, with the potential to move towards ₹1.9 lakh levels by the next Akshaya Tritiya.

ALSO READ: Why jewellers and banks love Akshaya Tritiya — and how they prepare for it

What investors should do

The key takeaway is that post-Akshaya Tritiya movements are often subdued in the short term, but the broader trend has historically remained positive.

Investors should avoid making decisions based purely on seasonal patterns. Instead, they should focus on:

Global macro trends
Portfolio allocation to gold
Long-term investment horizon

Investors should note

While gold may not surge immediately after Akshaya Tritiya -- and could even see short-term consolidation -- history suggests that any dip post-festival has often been a buying opportunity.

The festival may influence when people buy gold, but as experts highlight, it is global economics—not tradition—that ultimately determines where prices go.