Would you keep investing if markets goes nowhere for 10 years?

Market corrections often dominate headlines, but prolonged periods of flat returns can prove even more challenging for investors. According to Chartered Accountant Ankush Prajapati, the biggest risk for long-term wealth creation is not necessarily a market crash—it is losing patience during years when markets appear to deliver little or no returns.

In a recent analysis, Prajapati argued that history shows stagnation tests investor behaviour more than volatility. "The biggest risk isn't a market crash. It's losing patience during years when markets do... nothing," he said, adding that disciplined investors who remain invested through such periods are often better positioned to benefit when markets eventually recover.

Flat markets can test investor discipline

Unlike market crashes, which are often followed by sharp recoveries, stagnant markets can leave investors questioning their strategy for years. During such phases, there are no clear buy or sell signals, making it easier for investors to abandon long-term plans in search of better-performing assets.

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"The hardest test is not a crash. It is nothing. Year after year. And whether you stay anyway," Prajapati noted.

According to Prajapati, patience should not be viewed as passive investing but as an active investment strategy that requires discipline and consistency.

Japan offers a lesson in patience

One of the strongest examples cited is Japan's stock market. The Nikkei 225 peaked in December 1989 before entering one of the longest bear markets in history. By 2003, the index had fallen more than 78% from its peak and did not regain its 1989 high until 2024—roughly 35 years later.

The example highlights that even major markets can experience decades of weak or stagnant performance, testing the resolve of long-term investors.

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India has also witnessed periods of zero returns

The analysis points out that Indian equities have experienced extended phases of muted performance as well. Between November 2010 and October 2013, the Nifty 50 generated virtually no returns for lump-sum investors despite a three-year holding period.

However, investors who continued investing through systematic investment plans (SIPs) accumulated units at different market levels. According to the illustration, a monthly SIP of ₹10,000 over 36 months resulted in an investment value of about ₹5.91 lakh by February 2015, compared with approximately ₹5.39 lakh for a lump-sum investment of ₹3.6 lakh made at the beginning of the period.

Behaviour matters as much as returns

Prajapati noted that stagnant markets often tempt investors to compare equity returns with fixed deposits, gold or debt investments, which may appear to perform better over shorter periods.

Such comparisons, he argues, can lead investors to stop SIPs or shift entirely into safer assets just before equity markets begin recovering.

Instead, he recommends continuing SIPs, maintaining asset allocation, reviewing portfolios less frequently and focusing on long-term financial goals rather than short-term returns.

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Patience can become a long-term advantage

The broader message is that successful investing depends not only on selecting quality assets but also on staying invested during periods when markets appear unproductive.

"History shows that stagnation tests behaviour more than returns," Prajapati said. "The investors who stay disciplined through the silence are often the ones who benefit the most when the cycle turns."

For long-term investors, the lesson is straightforward: while market crashes may be dramatic, prolonged periods of inactivity can be an even greater test of conviction—and patience may ultimately prove to be one of the most valuable investment strategies.