Gold prices could hit ₹1.80 lakh by next Dhanteras: How much can investors earn from current levels?

Gold prices have corrected sharply from their January 2026 peak, but the decline may not signal the end of the precious metal's long-term rally. With Dhanteras approaching on November 6, Chirag Mehta's latest gold outlook suggests that the correction reflects temporary liquidity pressures rather than a fundamental weakening of investment demand.

In his November 2026 report, Gold Outlook: Correction Without Capitulation?, Mehta noted that gold ended October 30 at $3,875 per troy ounce, registering a monthly decline of 6.87%. Prices were nearly 30% below their January record, even as institutional investors and central banks continued accumulating bullion.

Why is gold falling despite strong demand?

Mehta attributed the correction to a combination of rising crude oil prices, persistent inflation, elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Brent crude futures surged 13.6% during October, touching $118 per barrel, while US inflation reached 3.7% in September.

The US Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75–4% on October 28, but expectations of further tightening continued to weigh on gold. Mehta highlighted an unusual market development on October 22, when US 10-year Treasury yields declined 17 basis points, yet gold fell 2.8%.

The divergence suggested that forced liquidation, margin calls and investors raising cash were temporarily overpowering gold's traditional safe-haven appeal.

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Why does Chirag Mehta remain optimistic?

Mehta argued that investor behaviour reveals a more resilient picture than falling prices suggest.

Global gold ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $3.2 billion through October 23, despite the correction. Gold ETFs also witnessed 15 consecutive weeks of positive flows before the streak ended.

Meanwhile, China's central bank added 21 tonnes of gold in September, extending its purchasing streak to 23 consecutive months.

Mehta believes sustained institutional demand and central-bank diversification support gold's longer-term investment case.

However, he cautioned that liquidity-driven selling could trigger further short-term weakness before prices stabilise.

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Can gold reach ₹1.80 lakh by next Dhanteras?

While Mehta's report does not specify a domestic gold price target, other brokerages remain bullish.

Axis Direct expects gold to reach ₹1.65 lakh–₹1.80 lakh per 10 grams by next Dhanteras.

From the November 4 price of approximately ₹1.46 lakh, these targets imply potential gains of 13%–23%.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services identifies $3,800–3,900 per ounce as an accumulation zone, with medium-term targets of $4,500–4,700.

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What should investors watch?

Mehta believes US monetary policy, real bond yields and global liquidity conditions will determine gold's next major move.

He also highlighted rising US government debt-servicing costs as a potential constraint on prolonged monetary tightening.

If financial stress increases or the Federal Reserve shifts towards easing, gold could regain momentum.

For investors, the key distinction is between temporary market liquidation and a lasting deterioration in fundamentals.

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