‘Cicada’ variant emerges from dormancy: US reports 15% jump in cases. Is another COVID wave coming?

A newly-emerging variant of COVID-19 — dubbed the “Cicada” variant (BA.3.2) — is drawing global attention as infections begin to rise again in multiple regions, raising questions about whether another wave could be underway. 

Recent surveillance data indicates a noticeable uptick in infections, particularly in the United States, where cases have risen by around 15% in recent weeks. Wastewater monitoring has also shown a sharp increase in viral traces, pointing to wider community spread. 

The BA.3.2 variant is now gaining ground in the U.S. and parts of Europe, suggesting it may be contributing to this upward trend. 

What Is the ‘Cicada’ Variant? 

The “Cicada” variant (BA.3.2) is an Omicron subvariant first detected in late 2024. Scientists gave it the nickname because it appeared to remain “underground” or dormant for a prolonged period before rapidly re-emerging in 2026. 

It is now rising in prevalence globally, with increasing detections across surveillance systems. 

Highly mutated, Immune evasion potential 

Experts note that BA.3.2 carries a high number of mutations, which may help it partially evade immunity built from prior infections or vaccinations. This could explain its growing spread, even in populations with significant existing immunity. 

However, according to the World Health Organization, there is currently no evidence that the variant causes more severe disease compared to earlier strains. 

Symptoms remain familiar 

Despite its mutations, the symptoms associated with the “Cicada” variant remain similar to other circulating respiratory viruses. Common signs include runny nose, headache, fatigue, and mild flu-like illness. 

This overlap can make it difficult to distinguish from other infections without testing. 

Is another pandemic-scale wave likely? 

While rising case numbers are a concern, most experts believe the world is unlikely to see a pandemic-scale wave similar to earlier phases. Instead, smaller, periodic surges are expected as the virus continues to evolve. 

In countries like India, stronger healthcare infrastructure and widespread immunity are expected to limit severe outcomes. 

Health authorities are closely tracking BA.3.2’s spread, particularly its ability to outcompete other variants. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this uptick stabilizes or accelerates into a broader wave.