Who will win FIFA World Cup 2026? Statisticians run 100,000 simulations to forecast champions

A team of statisticians has used 100,000 computer simulations to forecast the 2026 FIFA World Cup, placing Spain as the leading title contender with a winning probability of 14.5%, according to a report by The Conversation UK. England and France follow at 12.4% each, while Germany stands at 11.2%, with Portugal and Argentina also among the main contenders at 8.9% and 8.2% respectively.

The forecasting system works in two stages. First, statistical models are combined with expert assessments from bookmakers and transfer markets to estimate the strength of teams and players. Then a machine learning algorithm decides how to combine those strength estimates with other team information to produce a probabilistic forecast for every possible match.

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The team describes the system as a pair of loaded dice, with each side carrying different goal probabilities rather than equal chances. In the opening match, Mexico is projected to score 1.9 goals on average against South Africa’s 0.7. That makes Mexico win the most likely outcome at 65%, while a draw is given 21%, and a South Africa win 14%.

Using different pairs of loaded dice for each fixture, the researchers simulated every match under the official tournament draw and FIFA rules, including extra time and penalty shootouts. In those projections, the United States has a 78% chance of reaching the Round of 32, the highest in its four-team group. Its chances then fall more sharply in the knockout rounds, with the probability of winning the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19 placed at 1%.

The model draws on national team matches over the past eight years, bookmaker odds, player ratings based on goal contributions at club and international level, and expected market values from Transfermarkt. It also includes indicators such as FIFA ranking, the number of players involved in this year’s Champions League semi-finals and socioeconomic factors, including GDP per capita. 

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According to Achim Zeileis of the University of Innsbruck, who worked with Andreas Groll, Rouven Michels and colleagues at TU Dortmund University, Lars Magnus Hvattum of Molde University College and Gunther Schauberger of TU Munich, the same group has forecast previous tournaments. 

They correctly identified the United States as the winners of the 2019 Women’s World Cup, while Spain and Argentina were not the top favourites in 2023 and 2022, but were rated serious contenders. Zeileis said, "The model may not predict a winner with complete certainty, but it could still do better than an eight-limbed octopus," to The Conversation UK.