Next space race could be fuelled by AI: How technology may reshape the orbital economy by 2030

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a major force behind the next phase of space exploration, with cheaper access to orbit, autonomous systems and commercial investment reshaping the sector. The IEEE Megatrends 2030 report sees space technology poised for an expansion that could increasingly resemble the rapid growth witnessed in AI.

The report identifies AI, energy, health, space and physical AI as five interconnected megatrends, arguing that the next decade will be shaped by the interaction between these technologies rather than isolated breakthroughs. AI's rapid development is already influencing space applications, from autonomous vehicles to advanced manufacturing and infrastructure.

IEEE estimates that aggressive AI adoption could help drive $100 billion-$200 billion in space-tech investments worldwide, putting the sector on a potential high-growth trajectory.

Cheaper access could unlock the orbital economy

A central theme in the report is the emergence of a high-volume orbital economy. Reusable rockets, inexpensive access to space, autonomous space vehicles and better propulsion systems are among the developments identified as important technologies and signals for the sector.

The combination could move space activity beyond traditional satellite launches and government-led missions towards a broader commercial ecosystem.

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IEEE also points to in-situ manufacturing and mining, space-resource utilisation and lunar economic activity as potential components of this emerging orbital economy.

Manufacturing could move beyond Earth

Space-based manufacturing is another area where AI and advanced technologies could intersect. The report lists new materials, new semiconductor manufacturing and space-tech agriculture among its space-related technology predictions. It also identifies in-situ manufacturing and mining as part of the possible evolution of the orbital economy.

This could eventually expand the economic rationale for operating in orbit and beyond, particularly as autonomous systems reduce the need for constant human intervention.

Autonomous systems become critical

AI's role in space is not limited to analysing data. IEEE highlights AGI for space, autonomous space vehicles and autonomous laboratories among potential developments.

The report also flags AI-enabled systems, data centres in space and software-defined space systems as high-risk, high-reward possibilities. Data centres in space, for example, would require hardware capable of operating in harsh environments but could potentially benefit from solar power and free cooling.

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The risks rise with the opportunity

The expansion will not be without challenges. IEEE flags orbital debris, legal ambiguity, extreme mission risks, safety requirements and geopolitical concerns around technologies such as asteroid mining and space-based solar power.

The report therefore frames the next space race as more than a contest to reach orbit. It could become a race to build an AI-enabled orbital economy, combining autonomous vehicles, advanced materials, semiconductor manufacturing, resource utilisation and new infrastructure.

If those technologies mature together, space could shift from an exploration frontier into a major commercial technology market by 2030.

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