Can low-budget projects come to Bollywood’s rescue after poor first half of 2023?

If the first half of 2023 is anything to go by, the takeaway for the Hindi film industry is the unexpected success of Zara Hatke Zara Bachke and The Kerala Story. Film critic and trade analyst, Taran Adarsh is clear that if someone had told him at the beginning of the year that these would work, he would have laughed it off. Not only did they work but they made it big at the box-office—for instance, The Kerala Story had a box-office collection of Rs 242 crore on a budget of Rs 15-20 crore. 

Historically, the second half of any year is the most important given the number of festivals. To that extent, the pressure is always greater during this period and accentuated in 2023 because just three films of the over 50 releases have made it big. “Every movie has to be given a chance and one should underestimate any new release,” says Adarsh. To him, the possibility of “mid-range surprises” remains high given what one has seen in the first half and also the huge and somewhat unexpected success of The Kashmir Files last year—worldwide box-office collections of Rs 341 crore on a Rs 15-crore budget. 

Between July and December, the big-ticket projects include Shah Rukh Khan’s Jawan, Salman Khan’s Tiger 3, followed by Dunki, another SRK starrer. According to trade analyst, Amod Mehra, a higher proportion of films in the second half is peculiar to India. “On the business side, it is a tough phase and it is critical to bounce back. Many single screen theatres continue to shut shop,” he says. Besides, the big stars, over the last 2-3 years, have had a rough run at the box-office. “With only a greater emphasis on content, it does not matter how big a star you have. A medium-budget project could easily perform better than one with the top stars.”  

By the looks of it, the underdog could well be the silent saviour in Bollywood. On the big star bit, Adarsh throws in an interesting piece of a logic. “If that alone was sufficient, Adipurush would not have bombed. The presence of a name assures you of an opening but nothing more,” he says quite bluntly. If Bollywood wants that elusive run of success, it needs to do the basic stuff. Nothing more.