How the US-Iran deal could hurt India: Ex-Israeli spokesman points to 4 risks

Former Israeli government spokesman Eylon Levy on Monday argued that the newly announced US-Iran agreement could have significant consequences for India, claiming the deal strengthens both Pakistan's diplomatic standing and Iran's regional influence while leaving key security concerns unresolved.

Reacting to the agreement announced by US President Donald Trump, Levy said India may be welcoming the deal cautiously, but warned that "this is a disaster for India."

Must Read: 'Trump's biggest foreign policy failure': Ian Bremmer on what the US-Iran deal is missing

Levy's criticism came a day after the US and Iran agreed to a deal aimed at ending months of conflict.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that both sides had agreed to the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."

Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah have been fighting in Lebanon. 

Israel's National Security Minister has already said that his government is not bound by the deal.  

The pact, which is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, extends the ceasefire by another 60 days while negotiations continue on a final agreement.

According to Levy, the first concern for India is Pakistan's role in the diplomatic breakthrough.

"This deal has elevated India's arch-nemesis Pakistan to the level of global peacemaker," he said, adding that it undermines India's efforts to highlight Pakistan's support for terrorism and transforms Islamabad into "a powerbroker and leader of the Global South at India's expense."

Levy also argued that the agreement could undermine India's long-term connectivity ambitions in West Asia.

He said India had been pursuing the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) before the October 7 conflict, hoping to create a trade route linking India to Europe through the Gulf and Israel. An empowered Iran, he argued, could threaten that vision.

"The capitulation allows Iran to dominate India's western trading gateway," Levy said, adding that "an emboldened Iran with ballistic missiles and billions in sanctions relief imperils that vision."

He further claimed that the deal establishes a precedent that Iran-backed proxy groups are effectively untouchable, potentially creating fresh risks for shipping routes in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea.

A third concern, according to Levy, relates to Indian workers living across the Gulf region.

"This deal keeps nearly 10 million Indians in the shadow of Iran's ballistic missiles and killer drones," he said, arguing that India requires the Iranian threat to be neutralised in order to protect migrant workers and the remittances they send home.

Levy's final criticism focused on the absence of provisions addressing Iran's nuclear programme and missile capabilities.

"The failure to resolve the nuclear issue, while surrendering US leverage, means India will continue to be threatened by an Iranian regime in league with Pakistan pursuing nuclear weapons," he said.

He concluded that India's current policy of neutrality in the region was becoming increasingly difficult to sustain and predicted that closer strategic ties between India and Israel would become inevitable.

Levy's remarks echoed some of the concerns raised by geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer, who said key issues remained unresolved despite the agreement.

"The world needs the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Should have happened months ago, but today's outcome is the best option available," Bremmer said. However, he added that the deal contained "no agreement on nukes, ballistic missiles, support for proxies" and described the Iran conflict as "the biggest foreign policy failure of [the] Trump administration by a long margin."

The agreement has already drawn criticism from several Israeli political figures, who have questioned whether the deal adequately addresses Israel's security concerns and the activities of Iran-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah in the region.