'Islamabad will regret it': Ex-Pakistan ambassador's 2021 warning on Taliban proves prophetic

"Islamabad will come to regret" - that was Husain Haqqani's warning in 2021, just weeks before the Taliban seized Kabul. Five years later, the former Pakistan ambassador to the US says events have proved him right.

"In 2021, when many in Pakistan were celebrating the return to power of Taliban in Afghanistan, I had warned that Islamabad Will Come to Regret Aiding the Taliban’s Resurgence. Events of the last 5 years have proved that analysis right," Haqqani, now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, wrote on X on Sunday.

He also shared an article he wrote for Foreign Affairs in July 2021, less than a month before the Taliban captured Kabul.

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What Haqqani Warned In 2021

In his July 2021 article, Haqqani argued that Pakistan's support for the Taliban could ultimately turn into a strategic liability. "Pakistan got what it wished for - but will come to regret it. A Taliban takeover will leave Pakistan more vulnerable to extremism at home and potentially more isolated on the world stage."

Haqqani also warned that Pakistan's long-running balancing act with Washington would become harder to sustain. Islamabad had supported or tolerated the Taliban while trying to maintain its relationship with the US. A Taliban return, he argued, would make that "double game" increasingly difficult.

The senior fellow at Hudson Institute had cautioned that the Taliban might not remain as deferential to Pakistan once it was back in power. At the same time, he said the US was unlikely to reconcile with the Taliban in the long run.

For Pakistan, Haqqani described the worst-case scenario as being caught between an uncontrollable Taliban and international pressure to rein it in.

"Pakistan's nightmare scenario would be to find itself caught between an uncontrollable Taliban and international demands to rein them in. The Taliban's victory will have an equally disastrous effect on Pakistan's domestic peace and security," he added.

The bigger danger, however, could come from inside Pakistan. The former envoy warned that the Taliban's rise could embolden Islamist radicals in Pakistan and trigger violent blowback from the Pakistani Taliban. Any attempt by Islamabad to pressure the Taliban, he said, could result in attacks inside Pakistan.

He also warned of another possible consequence: a new refugee influx if fighting resumed in Afghanistan. A civil war next door, he said, could further damage Pakistan's already struggling economy.

At the heart of Pakistan's policy was its belief that the Taliban could help it in its strategic competition with India. But Haqqani argued that Islamabad had been playing a risky game for decades by supporting or tolerating the Taliban while simultaneously trying to remain in Washington's good books.

That arrangement, he warned, "was never going to prove sustainable in the long term." He added that the Taliban's victory "will have a disastrous effect on Pakistan’s domestic peace and security."

Weeks after Haqqani issued that warning, Kabul fell to the Taliban in August 2021.

Then-Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan welcomed the takeover, describing it as the Taliban "breaking the shackles of slavery."

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Ties With Taliban Deteriorate

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have deteriorated sharply since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of operating from Afghan soil. Kabul has rejected Pakistan's demands to take action against the group.

The tensions have also spilled across the border.

The Torkham crossing remained closed for nearly a month, from February 21 to March 19, 2025, after Pakistani and Afghan forces clashed over Afghanistan's construction of a border outpost. The fighting involved mortars and rocket fire and disrupted a major trade route.

The situation escalated further in October 2025. Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan on October 9, including strikes in Kabul and other provinces. Taliban forces responded with attacks on Pakistani military positions along the border on October 11 and 12.

The subsequent fighting involved artillery, drones, and further Pakistani airstrikes.

The conflict escalated again in February 2026, when Pakistan carried out another major round of airstrikes on Afghanistan, including attacks on Kabul and Kandahar. Afghan forces retaliated by attacking Pakistani military positions along the border.

Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif described the situation as an "open war" on February 27.