US Elections 2024: What if Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both fail to reach 270 electoral votes?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election unfolds, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could result in neither candidate reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency, though the likelihood of such an outcome is low.

If neither achieves the required majority, the decision-making process would be shaped by the 12th Amendment and various constitutional and procedural steps.

If both candidates reach an electoral vote total of 269, or if "faithless electors" deviate from their pledged choices, it would leave both Harris and Trump short of the 270 threshold. Such a situation could lead to a contingent election, where the House of Representatives decides the president.

In this case, the House would convene on January 6, 2025, to count electoral votes. If no candidate secures a majority, each state’s House delegation receives one vote. A majority of 26 states is required to elect the president. Currently, Republicans hold the majority in 26 state delegations, Democrats in 22, with two evenly split, though this balance may shift following the recent elections.

The Senate, in a separate process, would vote to elect the vice president, requiring a simple majority. If no candidate achieves the presidency by Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, the vice president-elect chosen by the Senate would act as president until a decision is reached. If neither the House nor Senate completes this process in time, the speaker of the House would temporarily serve as president, following the Presidential Succession Act of 1947.

While this outcome is statistically rare, it remains possible. FiveThirtyEight's projections have recorded the “no winner” scenario in only three out of 1,000 simulations. Historically, the House has selected a president only twice, in 1800 and 1824, under similar contingent circumstances.