From 40% deficit to near normal: How just two weeks changed India's monsoon

The southwest monsoon has staged an extraordinary turnaround, overturning forecasts of a below-normal July and dramatically shrinking the country's rainfall deficit in less than a month. According to Climate Trends' report, July 2026 Beats the Forecast as Climate Change and El Niño Rewrite the Monsoon, what began as a worrying season under the shadow of a strengthening El Niño has evolved into one of the biggest weather surprises of the year, reinforcing a growing scientific consensus that climate change is making the monsoon increasingly unpredictable.

At the end of June, India was grappling with a 40% rainfall deficit, triggering concerns over crop sowing, reservoir storage and water availability. By July 29, however, the deficit had narrowed sharply to 16%, thanks to a succession of active monsoon systems that kept rainfall activity alive across much of the country.

July beats the forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast below-normal rainfall for July, estimating precipitation at less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Instead, the country received 238.2 mm of rainfall between July 1 and July 26, marginally above the normal 233.9 mm for the period.

MUST READ: From Odisha to Delhi: These states will see heavy rainfall as 2 weather systems merge

The sharp improvement was powered by back-to-back low-pressure systems, including depressions and cyclonic circulations, that repeatedly travelled across the Bay of Bengal into the Indian mainland. These systems prevented prolonged dry spells and triggered widespread heavy rainfall across several regions.

Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall was recorded in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, helping erase much of the nationwide rainfall shortfall.

A recovery with regional contrasts

Despite the national recovery, the monsoon has remained uneven.

As of July 29, 15 states recorded normal rainfall, while four states received excess to large excess rainfall, together covering nearly 60% of India's state area. In contrast, 17 states continued to report deficient rainfall, with East and Northeast India facing a 30% shortfall and the South Peninsula recording a 26% deficit.

Key Numbers

The data shows that while India's aggregate rainfall picture has improved significantly, rainfall distribution remains highly skewed—a pattern that has become increasingly common in recent years.

MUST READ: Monsoon 2026: July showers bring relief, but 15% rainfall deficit continues, says Skymet

Why did forecasts go wrong?

Scientists say the monsoon's performance this year demonstrates that El Niño is no longer the only driver of India's rainfall.

According to former IMD Director General Dr K J Ramesh, warming in the West Pacific helped neutralise El Niño's rainfall-suppressing influence. Cyclonic circulations that formed around Myanmar entered the Bay of Bengal, re-intensified and generated widespread rainfall across the Indian peninsula. Simultaneously, increased Western Disturbances transported additional moisture from the Arabian Sea, boosting rainfall over Maharashtra, Gujarat and parts of northern India.

Scientists say these interacting weather systems are becoming increasingly important as global warming alters atmospheric circulation.

Climate change is amplifying extremes

Researchers believe climate change is acting as a force multiplier rather than replacing traditional climate drivers.

Warmer land and ocean temperatures allow the atmosphere to retain more moisture, meaning that whenever favourable weather systems develop, rainfall can become significantly more intense.

The month offered a striking example of this trend when Umergram in Gujarat received 1,064 mm of rainfall in just 24 hours, making it the third-highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in India since 1901.

Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to project an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño between October and December, even as scientists remain uncertain about whether the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will shift into a positive phase later this year.

MUST SEE: Monsoon Floods Hit Assam & Gujarat: Over 5.24 Lakh Affected, Dozens Dead As Army Leads Rescues

A new monsoon reality

The dramatic reversal from a 40% rainfall deficit to near-normal conditions within weeks highlights how rapidly India's monsoon can change. More importantly, it reinforces that forecasting seasonal rainfall totals alone is no longer enough.

As climate change interacts with El Niño, warmer oceans, Western Disturbances and other atmospheric drivers, the real challenge is predicting where, when and how intensely rainfall will occur. For policymakers, farmers and disaster managers alike, that shift could prove more important than whether the monsoon is officially classified as normal or deficient.