Xi-Modi meeting: India-China thaw faces hurdles over border, trade and Pakistan

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first visit to India since 2019 will test whether a fragile thaw between the two Asian powers can develop into a broader framework for engagement, even as longstanding disputes over the border, trade and Pakistan continue to weigh on ties, Bloomberg News reported.

Xi is scheduled to visit New Delhi on September 12-13 to attend the BRICS summit and is expected to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday evening. The visit marks Xi’s first return to India since the two leaders met in Chennai in 2019, before deadly border clashes the following year pushed bilateral relations to their lowest point in decades.

India-China ties show signs of thaw

The renewed engagement follows a series of steps aimed at stabilising ties. Modi and Xi met on the sidelines of the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, followed by another meeting in Tianjin in 2025. India and China have since restored direct flights, while New Delhi has relaxed some curbs on investment by Chinese companies. The two sides also signalled limited progress in border negotiations last month.

However, analysts caution against viewing the thaw as a fundamental strategic reset. Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, described the easing of tensions as “pragmatic risk management”. Both countries recognise that a volatile border would undermine their long-term economic priorities, he said, but deep strategic mistrust remains.

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Border, trade remain key friction points

The 3,488-kilometre frontier remains a major source of tension. A confrontation in June 2020 resulted in deaths on both sides and triggered tighter Indian restrictions on Chinese investment and technology. Xi also skipped the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, sending Premier Li Qiang instead.

Economic concerns are likely to feature in the talks. India remains worried about Chinese export controls on key machinery, including tunnel-digging equipment, as well as critical inputs such as rare-earth magnets and oxides that are important to its manufacturing sector. Beijing, meanwhile, remains wary of India’s alignment with the US on technology, trade and defence.

China’s expanding defence relationship with Pakistan adds another complication. New Delhi remains uneasy about Beijing’s military engagement with its regional rival, including Pakistan’s deployment of Chinese fighter jets during its clash with India last year.

US factor adds another layer

Reema Bhattacharya of Verisk Maplecroft said India-China rivalry remains the biggest constraint on BRICS cohesion. She described the thaw as “tactical and fragile”, partly driven by shared frustration with US tariffs, and warned that bilateral tensions could quickly resurface.

A positive outcome from the Xi-Modi meeting could include a framework for dialogue on trade and investment, cooperation on green technology and efforts to address India’s concerns over Chinese rare-earth supplies, according to Manoj Kewalramani of the Takshashila Institution.

The shifting US-China and US-India relationships add another layer to the calculations. With India-US ties facing strains and China-US relations improving, Beijing has additional incentives to keep relations with New Delhi stable. Xi’s visit therefore offers a chance to build confidence, but unresolved disputes mean the current thaw remains tactical rather than a lasting strategic reset.

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