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India's COVID-19 cases to peak in coming days, reduce to 20,000 per day by June-end: forecast

India's COVID-19 cases to peak in coming days, reduce to 20,000 per day by June-end: forecast

According to a mathematical model prepared by advisers to Prime Minister Narendra Modi India's COVID-19 outbreak could peak in the coming days

The group's projection has put them more in line with other scientists, who have also suggested a mid-May peak in COVID-19 cases of the country The group's projection has put them more in line with other scientists, who have also suggested a mid-May peak in COVID-19 cases of the country

India's COVID-19 outbreak could peak in the coming days, according to a mathematical model readied by advisers to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The group's projection has put them more in line with other scientists, who have also suggested a mid-May peak for the country.

India registered a record single-day hike of 4.14 lakh fresh COVID-19 case on Friday, May 7, taking the country's coronavirus tally to 2.14 crore, the health ministry's data showed.

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With 3,915 fatalities being reported in a span of 24 hours, the death toll inched to 2.34 lakh. Meanwhile, experts are of the view that the reported numbers likely downplay the real toll because India's hospitals and crematoriums have been overwhelmed, which makes the evaluation of any peak particularly complicated.

Nevertheless, the estimates may become pivotal as PM Modi has been averting a nationwide lockdown, rather choosing to let states enforce their own curbs to stem the spread of COVID-19.

"Our predictions are that the peak will come within a few days," Mathukumalli Vidyasagar, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad, told Bloomberg, referring to a model he readied with Manindra Agrawal, a professor from IIT Kanpur.

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"As per current projections, we should hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. We will revise this as needed," he noted.

Vidyasagar's team had in April wrongly projected that the COVID-19 wave would peak by the middle of last month.

The assessment was due to erroneous parameters, as "the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago," he tweeted at the time.

Researchers are largely of the view that the coming few weeks will be tough for India.