India, US still committed to trade deal, no disruption yet: NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam

India and the United States remain committed to finalising a trade agreement, with both sides holding fresh rounds of discussions last month, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said, expressing optimism that the deal could be concluded soon.

“The good thing is, both sides have still committed to having a trade deal. Discussions and negotiations happened last month, and both sides are hopeful,” Subrahmanyam said, adding that ministerial-level engagements are also currently underway in the US.

The NITI Aayog CEO clarified that the ongoing tariff tensions have not yet impacted trade flows, as both countries share deep-rooted commercial linkages that cannot be unwound quickly. “Let me be very clear — this is my assessment based on talking to people on the ground. Building trade channels is difficult, but unwinding them is equally difficult. These things don’t get disrupted overnight,” he said.

Subrahmanyam noted that shipments for the Christmas season are already underway, with goods typically dispatched in September and October. “So, I don’t see an impact coming before Christmas,” he said. However, he cautioned that if the trade deal isn’t settled soon, challenges may arise by next summer.

“The supplies are going now… but summer is going to be an issue if we don’t settle the trade deal. Let’s not be bluffing—50% tariffs are a major cost factor, there’s no escaping that,” Subrahmanyam warned.

He added that the resolution of the trade deal by November would be critical to ensuring business continuity and avoiding disruptions in the bilateral supply chain.