RBI MPC: Gov Sanjay Malhotra estimates GDP growth rate at 6.9% this year

RBI MPC announcements: Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra, during the Monetary Policy Committee announcements, projected a growth rate of 6.9 per cent this year. He projected Q1 growth at 6.8 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, and Q3 at 7 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The Iran war is likely to impact growth this year but sustained momentum in the services sector should continue economic activity.

He said, based on the new GDP series, growth for last year was 7.6 per cent. 

Elevated crude prices, disruptions in energy markets and other commodities, heightened uncertainty, weaker global growth prospects, and adverse spillovers could impact India’s growth trajectory, said Malhotra. 

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran just before the Iran war had estimated that growth forecast for FY27 is likely to be higher than the 6.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent presented in the Economic Survey.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs had lowered India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 5.9 per cent, down from 7 per cent before the US-Iran conflict. The forecast was earlier revised to 6.5 per cent in March. This change is due to rising crude oil prices caused by supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. SBI Research also said that higher oil prices are also expected to affect India’s external balance.