IndiGo Q4 results preview: Strong InterGlobe Aviation profit, margin expansion likely

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo) is all set to report a strong year-on-year (YoY) jump in top and bottom line growth on higher passenger count. Margins are seen expanding on yearly basis. Sequential numbers are likely to be weak.

Emkay Global forecast 110.90 per cent year-on-year (YoY) surge in net profit at Rs 1,932.30 crore for the March quarter against Rs 916 crore in the same quarter last year. Sales are seen rising 25.4 per cent YoY to Rs 17,756 crore from Rs 14,160 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen soaring 68.4 per cent YoY to Rs 4,203 crore, with margin expanding 605 basis points to 23.7 per cent from 17.6 per ecnt YoY.

"ASK may grow 13 per cent YoY/decline 6 per cent QoQ to 34.4bn; PLF is seen at 88 per cent; yield at Rs 5.1, up 5 per cent YoY/down 7 per cent QoQ; RPBT/ASK is seen up 87 per cent YoY at Re 0.56," Emkay said.

Prabhudas Lilladher sees profit for IndiGo growing 57 per cent YoY to Rs 1,443 crore on 18.7 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 16,810 crore. It sees margin at 23 per cent.

"We expect IndiGo to report revenues of Rs 16,800 crore (up 18.7 per cent YoY) with a load factor of 88.5 per cent and yield of Rs 5. We expect RASK of Rs 4.9 and gross spread (RASK less fuel CASK) of Rs 3.2 with Ebitdar margin of 23 per cent(excluding forex adjustments) for the quarter," it said.

Elara Securities expects profit to be at Rs 2,061 crore. It sees sales rising 20 per cent YoY to Rs 16,994 crore. This brokerage expects passenger volume to improve 2 per cent QoQ and 3 per cent YoY with PLF at 87.2 per cent in Q4FY24E versus 84.2 per cent in Q4FY23.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects a 16 per cent YoY change in passenger count in the quarter, largely driven by higher load factor
at 87 per cent.

"We expect RASK less CASK (excludes other income and forex) at Re 0.12 per ASK, against Re 0.07 per ASK in 4QFY23. The difference would have been higher if not for higher damp lease cost, builds in healthy pricing environment," it said.