Bajaj Finance shares surge 47% from 52-week low; overbought on charts, what's next?

Shares of Bajaj Finance have surged 47% from their 52-week low in four months. The NBFC stock slipped to a low of Rs 788.40 on March 23, 2026. The rally since March end took the stock to a record high of Rs 1,177.60 on August 3 this year. The up move in the stock has been triggered by strong Q4 and Q1 earnings and asset quality improvement in 2026.

After Q1 earnings, the management announced an aggressive target to reach a consolidated loan book of Rs 6.5 lakh crore by March 2027, boosting investor sentiment around the large cap stock.

The large cap is trading higher than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages.

In the current session, Bajaj Finance were trading on a flat note at Rs 1154.40. Market cap of the firm rose to Rs 7.18 lakh crore.

According to Bloomberg, Bajaj Finance shares are up 10% in 5 days and rose 12% in the past 30 days. The stock trades at 28.3 times its estimated earnings per share for the coming year. The company's dividend yield is 0.5% on a trailing 12-month basis and 0.6% based on Bloomberg Dividend Forecasts for the next 12 months.

In Q1 of the current fiscal, the firm reported a 27% rise in net profit to Rs 5,985.75 crore for the June 2026 quarter from the Rs 4,699 crore profit reported in the corresponding period of the previous financial year. Meanwhile, net interest income, rose 23% year-on-year to Rs 12,571 crore against Rs 10,228 crore in the year ago period.

Assets under management (AUM) grew by 24% to Rs 546,944 crore as of 30 June 2026 from Rs 441.450 crore as of 30 June 2025. AUM grew by Rs 36,969 crore in Q1 FY27. Net interest income rose 23% in Q1FY27 to Rs 12,571 crore from Rs 10.228 crore in Q1 FY26. Net total income rose 22% in Q1FY27 to Rs 15,224 crore from Rs 12,460 crore in Q11 FY26.

Expert speak 

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking said, "Bajaj Finance is exhibiting a robust bullish structure on the daily chart after confirming a Rounding Formation breakout, signalling a continuation of its prevailing uptrend. The breakout has been accompanied by strong price expansion and sustained buying interest, while the stock continues to trade comfortably above its 20, 50, 100 and 200-Day EMAs, reflecting exceptional trend strength."

"The RSI is hovering around 75 after witnessing a sharp rebound from the midpoint, indicating strong momentum, although the indicator has entered the overbought zone. Currently trading around Rs 1,155, the stock is approaching a crucial Fibonacci Extension resistance near Rs 1,176 (Rs 1236 extension), which may act as an immediate hurdle. The recent breakout zone around Rs 1,100 is expected to provide strong support on any corrective decline. A decisive breakout above the Rs 1,176– Rs 1,280 resistance band could reinforce the ongoing bullish trend and extend the rally towards the next Fibonacci Extension zone of Rs 1,260–1,300 over the medium term," added Tailor.

Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio said, "Bajaj Finance has delivered a decisive breakout above the previous resistance zone near Rs 1,090, supported by a strong bullish candle and sustained trading above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a robust medium-term uptrend. Momentum remains positive, although the RSI is hovering in the overbought zone, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation after the sharp rally. As long as the stock holds above Rs 1,090, the bullish structure is likely to remain intact. On the upside, Rs 1,250 remains the immediate price target, while a sustained breakout above recent highs could extend the rally towards Rs 1,300 over the coming weeks."