BEL share price targets: What Jefferies, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Morgan Stanley say

Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) has received at least seven 'Buy' recommendations, including from UBS, Investec, MOFSL, IIFL Securities and JM Financial, and an 'Outperform' rating from Bernstein following its mixed June quarter results. The Bloomberg consensus target price of Rs 489, as compiled by Business Today, implies a potential upside of 20 per cent over the next 12 months. Among the latest 18 target prices, Jefferies and Macquarie have the highest target of Rs 550, while Axis Capital's Rs 442 is the lowest.

Q1 results: Mixed bag
BEL's Q1 results were a mixed bag but the defence PSU reiterated its FY27 guidance, expecting revenue growth of 15 per cent, an Ebitda margin of 28 per cent, and order inflows of over Rs 55,000 crore, including the QRSAM program. The company also plans to invest over Rs 2,200 crore in research and development and Rs 1,200 crore in capex during the year, while maintaining a business mix of 90 per cent defence and 10 per cent non-defense.

For the June quarter, while standalone revenue grew 25 per cent YoY, gross margin for BEL contracted 775 basis points to 45.5 per cent, primarily due to product mix with negligible impact of input costs. Foreign brokerage Nomura said the Q1 sales beat was offset by the margin drag.

"We expect revenue growth and Ebitda margin to normalise over the coming quarters. We reaffirm our Neutral rating with an unchanged target of Rs 454," it said while suggesting Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) as it preferred pick in the defence sector.

Emerging segments
While BEL could not emerge as the L-1 bidder for the system integrator role in the Netra 2 project, its subsystem level capabilities will still be used in the project. The exponential growth in emerging segments such as drones and counter-drones is creating ample opportunities, which BEL aims to tap into by focusing more on complex systems, Nomura said.

MOFSL said it remained positive on BEL and expects it to benefit from various large platform orders, which will be finalized over the next few years from the Army, Navy, and Air Force.

"We tweak our estimates and expect BHE to post a 14-15 per ecnt CAGR in revenue, Ebitda and PAT over FY26-29. Reiterate BUY with a revised target of Rs 530 on roll forward to 45x Sep’28E earnings (vs. Rs 510 earlier)," it said.

BEL target prices 

Among foreign brojerages, Morgan Stanley has an 'Overweight' rating and a target of Rs 493 on the stock. Macquarie gave an 'Outperform' recommednation with a target of Rs 550. CLSA suggested an 'Accumulate' rating with a target of Rs 522. Among 'Buy' calls, Goldman Sachs set a target of Rs 470 on BEL; UBS target stands at Rs 500, Jefferies at Rs 550 and Citi at Rs 515.

Amogn domestic brokerages, ICICI Securities suggested a target of Rs 460, Antique Rs 532, JM Financial Rs 485, 360 ONE Capital Rs 500 and DAM Capital Rs 530.

What to watch
Nuvama said all eyes would be on the timely awarding of large ticket-size orders from Rs 1 lakh crore pipeline, which is likely to materialise over next two years. A sustained execution momentum remains critical, it said.

"Progress on NGC, P75I, Project Kusha, naval radars and Shakti Phase IV orders remains the biggest driver of medium-term growth visibility," the brokerage said while suggesting a target of Rs 485.