BPCL, HPCL, IOC shares: OMC stocks in focus as US-Iran deal sends oil prices tumbling

Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) namely Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) Ltd are likely to be in focus after a sharp fall in Brent crude oil futures to $83 a barrel level following the announcement of the US and Iran peace deal. 
Brent futures for August delivery declined 4.72 per cent to $83.21 a barrel. The development is expected to bring further recovery to OMC stocks that are up 5-6 per cent in the past one month.

In a social media post, the US President Donald Trump said: "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Due to the West Asia war, OMCs had to diversified crude sourcing away from the Persian Gulf towards Russia, Africa and South America, with Russian crude share rising. Crude landing costs increased, while international spot premiums rose sharply to $20-30 per barrel. LPG under-recoveries surged from Rs 100 per cylinder in Q4FY26 to Rs 600-670 per cylinder in May, PL Capital in a note suggested.

Last month saw state-run OMCs hiking the price of petrol and diesel multiple times (nearly Rs 4 per litre and CNG as well. "Although Q4FY26 earnings were largely protected by inventory gains, managements expect a challenging Q1FY27," PL Capital noted.

HDFC Securities in its Q4 note said strong refining margins and inventory gains led to strong March quarter for OMCs while marketing margins were under pressure as rising crude prices were not passed on to retail consumers adequately. LPG under recoveries were aggravating the situation for OMCs and marketing margins deterioration was threatening FY27 outlook.