Dalal Street forecast: Q4 earnings, inflation worries to dictate market movement this week

The Indian market is likely to see volatile action on account of inflation worries, March quarter earnings and the Russia-Ukraine war this week. The market, which will open today after a four-day holiday, will is likely fall as SGX Nifty declined 75 points to 17,253.

Sensex and Nifty will take cues from the ongoing March quarter earnings, the Russia-Ukraine issue, rising inflation data, and crude oil prices this week.

Brent crude oil is still trading above $100 per barrel which will likely affect the stock movement of many Indian firms dependent on the commodity for raw materials and secondary inputs in their production process.

Hemant Kanawala, Head - Equity, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance said, "Globally managing inflation has taken precedence over growth as higher commodity prices especially that of crude oil and agriculture commodities has led to surge in cost of living. With central banks around the world taking monetary measures to contain inflationary pressures, its possible impact on growth needs to be watched. Inflationary pressures have also been weighing on markets too given the possible impact on margins and thus earnings.  Hence, any developments on these fronts need careful monitoring."

Share Market LIVE: Sensex, Nifty likely to open lower today

Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities said, "After a 700/2500 points fall from the monthly highest level, currently Nifty is trading near 20 day simple moving averages. We are of the view that, the index consistently witnessing profit booking at higher level, the texture is weak but high chances of pullback rally is not ruled out if the index stand above 20 day SMA.  Above this level, the Nifty/Sensex could move up to 17,700/59000 or 10 day SMA. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index up to 17800-17850/59300-59450. On the flip side, 17450-17400/58200-58000 would be the sacrosanct support zone. Below the same, index would retest the level of 17200-17100/57300-57000."

Stocks in news: HDFC Bank, Tata Steel, Mindtree, Infosys, Indraprastha Gas and more

In the last trading session on April 13, Sensex declined 237.44 points or 0.41 per cent to settle at 58,338.93 on April 13. he NSE Nifty dipped 54.65 points or 0.31 per cent to finish at 17,475.65.

HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Dr Reddy's, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, PowerGrid and Kotak Bank were among the top Sensex losers. ITC, Sun Pharma, Hindustan Unilever Limited, State Bank of India and NTPC were among the top gainers on the 30 stock index.

Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One said, "Looking at the recent development, 17,500 is expected to act as the immediate support zone, followed by the unfilled gap of 17350 odd zones. On the contrary, 17650 could be seen as immediate resistance, followed by the sturdy wall of the 17900-18000. The momentum is likely to be seen only when the major hurdle of the 18000 mark is crossed decisively. Till then, traders are advised to remain cautious and have a stock-centric approach to trading opportunities."

AR Ramachandran, co-founder & trainer, Tips2Trades said, "With Q4FY22 results of Infosys & HDFC Bank being very average and investors also awaiting WPI inflation numbers today which are expected to be worse, broader markets look weak and investors could brace themselves for a very volatile week ahead. Technically, Nifty will face strong resistance at 17,700 and support of 17,420 will be crucial. Nifty Bank has crucial support at 37,150 with 38,000 acting as a stiff resistance."